中国人工智能：市场过热？寒武纪与海光模型更新

China AI: Overheated Market? Cambricon & Hygon model update 1The China AI sector has been in the spotlight the past month, led by Cambricon’s shareprice more than doubling since Aug 11, 2025 (see our Aug 12 comments). Halt in H20order/production, DeepSeek planning to switch to local AI chip ecosystem, China AI+ policy, Jensen’s (NVDA) comments on USD 50bn China AI market with 50% CAGR,uncertainty in B30 license and timeline - all this recent news paints a bigger China AImarket that increasingly favor local AI chip vendors, where Cambricon became the street’sfavorite beneficiary. Maybe the company also feels like the stock is overheated, Cambriconpublished an announcement saying that they expect their 2025 revenue to be RMB 5-7bn(30-50% lower than local buy side expectation at 10bn+), with no plan for new productlaunch.We believe Cambricon’s stock price will react negatively, which could lead toa sentiment reset that also negatively impacts other AI related names such as Hygonand SMIC. Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Zheng Cui+852 2123 2694zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com Francis Ma+852 2123 2626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com In this call, we also updated our company models regarding China computing, followingHygon and Cambricon’s earnings and our deep dive in China AI chip supply and demand.Our latest models can be downloaded here (Cambricon, Hygon). For Cambricon, we lift the revenue forecast, maintain P/E multiple, revise up PTfrom RMB 600 to 1,100, maintain Market-Perform.2Q24 earnings is well expected,with revenue slightly falls short of buyside expectation at RMB 2bn (which we believe couldbe revenue recognition delay as that could be in contract liability), but impressive 38%+ NPM added fuels to push the stock price a record high post the earnings. The stockrally might be mainly driven by sentiment, but we also saw positive upsides to the revenueprojection in 2026/27 with the catalyst we mentioned above. We lift our 2026/27Erevenue forecast to RMB 6.1/15.2/20.9 bn for 2025E/2026E/2027E (from 6.1/8.8/15.4bn) with the expectation on higher demand & improved supply for Cambricon, and trim ourGPM assumptions given we expect the local 7nm pricing will likely be more costly this year.Maintain Market-Perform as the stock price is higher than our PT even after model update,increase 2026E EPS to RMB 10.00 (from 5.47), and maintained the Price to EPS (P/ E)multiple at 110x, raised PT to CNY 1100 (was 600). For Hygon, we lift our revenue forecast, maintain P/E multiple, revise up PT fromRMB 200 to 220, maintain Outperform.Hygon’s 2Q25 net profit actually falls shortof buy side expectation at 800~900mn, partially due to the lower GPM as a result of newproducts launch with higher materials cost. Hygon’s DCU3 (BW1000) is still one of themost competitive products locally, and we expect to contribute more to its revenue in nextyear. But just in terms of stock price, Hygon only surged +50% in the past month, seemsa lager compared to Cambricon and we believe in 12-month there could be some upsidepotential. Note that Hygon’s restricted share lift time is delayed due to the M&A with Sugon(603019 CH, not covered), so there could be some pressure for the stock to go up veryhigh in the near term. We lift our revenue forecast on Hygon to RMB 14.2/22.3/29.4 bn for2025E/2026E/2027E (from 14.2/19.8/26.0 bn) , but we also trim our GPM assumptionsto reflect potentially higher wafer cost from local advanced logic foundry, with OpEx largelyunchanged. Maintain Outperform, we raise our 2026E EPS estimates slightly by +8% to2.20, and maintained the Price to EPS (P/ E) multiple at 100X, we lift our TP from 200 to220. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Hygon (688041 CH): Hygon is the leading domestic x86 server CPU provider, which builds its technology stack on top of theAMD license, benefiting from x86 server CPU domestic substitution. Hygon's AI accelerator (called DCU or Deep ComputingUnit) could be the next growth engine, with better compatibility and potentially more resilient on supply chain, we think Hygoncould be attractive for both government and internet customers. Outperform, PT CNY 220. Cambricon (688256 CH): Cambricon is the leading AI accelerator ASIC chip provider in China, which is the best alternativeto the leading domestic AI chip player Huawei in China, benefiting from the domestic substitution in AI chips. We like the techfoundation of the company but the valuation is too high in our view. Market-Perform, PT CNY 1100. DETAILS CAMBRICON EARNINGS REVIEW Source: Company report, Bernstein estimate and analysis Source: Company report, Bernstein estimate and analysis APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April