从储蓄到主权：欧洲的创新与长期经济增长

Innovation and Long-TermEconomic Growth in Europe September 2025 What you need to know ●European tech has matured.A growing wave of scaleups with $100M+ revenues makes Europe one of theworldʼs most attractive places to invest. ●Too much dependence on overseas capital.Value created in European startups flows back to overseas pensionfunds and endowments — slowing the compounding effect on Europeʼs own economy. ●European tech ecosystem capital need is~0.2% of GDP.*A fraction of the 5% for defense, 2.5% energyand 1.5% infrastructure investment needs. ●Europeʼs pension funds invest almost nothing in venture capital.This is not just a missed opportunity — itʼs astrategic vulnerability that undermines Europeʼs tech sovereignty. ●The tide may be turning.Signs are emerging that pension funds are beginning to take a bigger role. Thequestion is whether it will happen fast enough to shape the next decade of growth. ●Pension fund allocation of2% of AuMto VCs would transform European innovation finance.SingleMarket and Capital Markets Union are worthwhile long-term goals. But Pension Funds are existing infrastructure,naturally borderless, just like the European startup ecosystem itself. Introducing the newSee which institutional LPs are most active in VC 1The Rise of European Tech 2From Savings to Sovereignty3Why European Tech Matters $3.5 tn value created by European VC-backed companies since 1990. Incl categoryleaders like Adyen vs. Stripe, Revolut, Spotify vs. Netflix, OpenAI vs. DeepMind Combined enterprise value Europe VC-backed After a 30 year latestart, Europe's youngergeneration ofVC-backed startups aretakinga growing share ofglobal new enterprisevalue – around 17%over the last five years Enterprise value today of VC backed companies But thereʼs a bigproblem: Europeis reliant onoverseas capitalat the breakoutand scaleup stage This picture has notchanged in last 10years, despiteintentions otherwise Also the absolute amount is falling short by about $30B per year.Especially at Series C, D, E+, pre-IPO rounds (as well as post-IPO) Important to fix this: biggest-ever pipeline of promising companies Number of VC-backed startups coming out of … And high-growth companies reaching meaningful scale across Europe Companies with$100M+ revenue 1The Rise of European Tech 2From Savings to Sovereignty 3Why European Tech Matters Pension funds play major role in how Europe allocates capital Rewiring Europeʼs savings: from risk-averse to long-term growth European Pension fund commitments have inched towards €858 billion toEuropean VC in 2024 directly (and additionally invested via Fund-of-Funds) With ~€5 billion committedto European VC in the lastdecade, European Pensionfunds represent still only3% and this percentage hasnot meaningfully movedover the last decade Meanwhile, US pensionfunds are underpinningtheir VC industry, withonly 1-3% allocated toit. Only 2% of Europeʼs $15trillion = $300 billionwhich would transformEuropeʼs tech sector. The Nordics andBenelux lead when itcomes to pension fundinvolvement in VC Dealroomʼs newLP Rankingconfirms Nordicpension fundsare the mostactive in VC 1The Rise of European Tech2From Savings to Sovereignty3Why European Tech Matters Itʼs now clear that innovationʼs really big waves play outover 50 years or more - and they compound Resulting in massive companies Tech vs. Non-Tech: Earnings powercontinues tobifurcate. I'm somewhatembarrassed to saythatTim Cookhasmade Berkshire a lotmore money than Iever have."" – Warren Buffett,illustrating the Power Law Power Law is not new. But this time, concentration also hyper-locally. San Franciscoproductivity is 1.8xthat of Manhattan. The Bay Area is ananomaly within the US,too! Indeed, tech hubs are driving economic growth Draghi and others madeconvincing case thattechnology drivesproductivity and strategicautonomy. Summary conclusions 1.European tech is investable.Wave of $100M+ revenue scaleups.2.Value leaks abroad.Overseas capital captures Europeʼs returns.3.Gap ≈0.2%of GDP*.Small ask, big impact.4.Pensions in VC ≈ nil.A tech-sovereignty risk.5.Momentum is building.Will it move fast enough?6.Pensions are the rails.2% →VCwould transform; (CMU is longer-term).