以云业务和即时零售的稳健进展开启FY26财年

Kicked off FY26 with solid progress on cloudand quick commerce TargetPriceUS$158.80(Previous TPUS$141.20)Up/Downside17.6%Current PriceUS$135.00 Alibaba1QFY26(March year-end) revenue was RMB247.7bn, up1.8% YoY,2% lower than Bloomberg consensus due to the disposal of Sun Art and Intimebut was 1% better than ourestimate. Excluding the impactofdisposal, revenuegrowth would be 10% YoY on like-for-like basis.Adj.EBITAin 1QFY26wasRMB38.8bn,down14% YoY,duetoinvestment for quick commerce business,but was 3% better than our forecast.In 1Q results:1)cloud revenue acceleratedfasterthanexpectation(+26% YoY; AI related rev accounted for >20% of revfrom external customers),and management expectsthe growth to acceleratefurtherin the coming quarters;2)AIDC narrowed its loss to approachbreakeven;and3)theheavyinvestment inquickcommerce(QC)deliveredearly-stage results (MAC of QCapproached 300mn in Aug, contributingto25/20%YoYincrease in MAC/DAUof Taobao App), although the sustainabilityisstill to be verified. The fierce competition in QC especially in food deliverycategorycouldsustain in2QFY26, in our view,although thecompetitionwilllikely ease in 4Qoff a high season, while management expects to cut uniteconomics loss by half from current level by end-Oct 2025.We lift our SOTP-based TP to US$158.8(wasUS$141.2)to account for more positive businessdevelopment outlook for Alibaba China E-commerce Group (ACEG), as wellasthe lift in valuation of Cloud Intelligence Group (CIG) on betterrevenuegrowthoutlook. Our TP translates into 20/16x FY26E/27E PE (non-GAAP).BUY. China Internet Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Joanna Ma(852) 3761 8838joannama@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Cloud revenue growth could accelerate further.CIG achieved revenuegrowthof 26% YoY in 1QFY26 (1QFY25: 6%; 4QFY25:18%), driven bypublic cloud revenue growth, including the increase in adoption of AI-relatedproducts. Management highlighted that AI related revenueaccountedforover 20% of revenue from external customers, andexpects thecloudrevgrowth to accelerate further in the coming quarters. Although facing supplyconstraints in chips, management remains committedtothe capex plan ofRMB380bnin three yearsthatwasunveiled in Feb 2025, and guided tobalance revenue growth andprofitabilitywhen driving cloud revenue growth. Heavy investment on QC deliveredearly-stageresults.Withinthe newlyclassified ACEG, customermanagementrevenue (CMR) deliveredgrowthof 10% YoYin 1QFY26,1% better than consensus,driven byGMV growthand increase in monetization rate. Management is confident that the levelofCMRwillsustainin the coming quarters, driven by further increase ofpenetration forQuanzhantui (QZT), and potential synergies brought byinvestment in QC, assuch investmenthas helped improve user stickinessand generate incremental GMV, which should in turn drive better CMRgrowth outlook in the future.Managementis currently expectingRMB1tnincremental GMV to be generated by QC in FY28, and expectsc. 2-3%incremental CMR growth to be generated from the synergiesbetween QCand Taobao in the medium to the long term. On investment side, adj. EBITAforACEG was RMB38.4bn in 1QFY26,down 21%YoY due to theinvestmentin QC. However, management highlighted that the adj. EBITAhas grown YoY if excluding the investmentinQCbusiness. It also notedthat investmentinQC brought c. RMB11bn impact on EBITA in 1QFY26.Although this investment amount wasRMB1bnwider than our previousexpectation, ithas drivenbetter-than-expected synergies. However,basedon our calculation, the results alsoindicate a YoY decline in adj. EBITAmarginforpreviousTaobao and Tmallbusiness, whichislikely due to frontinvestment to drive synergies between QC and Taobao. Source: FactSet Key business segmentsupdate Starting from 1QFY26,Alibabaundertook a strategic combination of Taobao and TmallGroup, Ele.me and Fliggy intoACEG, andsimplified the financial reporting structure byreclassifying Cainiao, Amap and Digital Media and Entertainment Group (rebranded toHujing Digital Media and Entertainment Group) into“All others”. Based onthere-alignment,Alibaba’s segment reporting will be reclassified to: 1) ACEG; 2)Alibaba International DigitalCommerce Group (AIDC);3)CIG;and4)All others. ACEG(52.5% of1QFY26revenue) In1QFY26, revenue generated fromACEGwas RMB140.1bn, up9.7% YoY.Within thesegment, E-commerce/QC/China Commerce saw revenue growth of 9.3/12.0/12.8% YoYrespectively.Within E-commerce subsegment,CMR/direct sales,logistics&othersdelivered revenue growth of10.1%/6.9%,respectively. CMR revenue growth of 10% was primarily driven by theimprovementof take rate, whichbenefited from the addition of software service feesin September 2024, and increasingpenetration of Quanzhantui (QZT). Management shared its progress on the early-stage investment results of QC: 1) on ordervolume, peak daily order volume reached 120mn, andweeklyaverage daily orders reached80mn in Aug; 2