2025年第二季度业绩向好；折叠iPhone、汽车及AI服务器（液冷、电源、800G/1.6G/CPO）多重增长动力

2Q25 upbeat;Multiple growth drivers in foldable iPhone,auto andAIserver(liquid cooling, power,800G/1.6G/CPO) server (liquid cooling, power,800G/1.6G/CPO) Target PriceHK$47.37(Previous TPHK$43.22)Up/Downside15.0%Current PriceHK$41.18 BYDEpostedsolid2Q25 revenue/net profitgrowth of4%/22% YoY onrapid growthof higher-margin NEV segment and improving profitability of iPhone casing, despiteslower handset casing/OEM and new intelligence segment.Duringearnings call,mgmt.guided upbeat outlookin 2H25/FY26E,backedby1)SP:50% YoY in iPhonecasing sales in FY26E onfoldable iPhone,2)Auto:35-40% YoYsalesin FY25E,3)Liquid cooling:component mass production (MP)in 2H25E,4)Power-related:GB200/300 productMP in 2H25E,5)Transceivers:800GMP in 2H25E (50k/mcapacity by FY25E), 1.6T sampling done andCPOtarget to ship in 2026), 6)Robotics:AMR of 2k units in operations andupgrade in 3rd-gendexterous hands.Overall, wehaveadjustedour FY25-27Eestimatesto reflect 1H25 results,weakerGPM dragged by auto/handsetandupbeatAI server outlook. Our new SOTP-basedTP of HK$47.37impliesrollover16.3xFY26E P/E(vs prior 16.2x FY25E P/E).Upcoming catalystsinclude iPhone launch/upgrade, AI server products’MP,robotics updatesandimprovingGPM. China Technology Alex NG(852) 3900 0881alexng@cmbi.com.hk Hanqing LIlihanqing@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data 2Q25sales/net profitgrowth of 4%/22% YoYdriven bystrongNEVandimproving margin.BYDE’s2Q25 sales/NP growthacceleratedto4%/22%YoY (vs 1%/1.9% YoY in 1Q25), thanks to rapidNEV growth on ADAS/suspension/smart cockpit/thermalproductsforBYD’smajor models, offsettingweaker CE/smartphoneandnew intelligent products.2QGPMcontinued toimprove to 7.4% (vs 6.3%/5.9% in 1Q25/4Q24)on betterNEVmix.For 1H25,higher-marginNEVrevenuegrew 61% YoY, while CEassembly/componentdeclined 2%/10% YoY and new intelligence segment dropped 4% YoY. Smartphone:foldable iPhone upgrade and stable assembly biz.ForFY25E, BYDE willfocus on high-end components andefficiencyimprovementinChengdu plant, while mgmt. guided 50%YoY for US client’componentrevenuein FY26Edriven byfoldable phoneand new model wins. NEVcomponents:conservative 35-40% YoY growth in FY25E.In viewofnear-term industry headwinds, mgmt. guided 35-40% YoYrevenuegrowthwithstable GPM in FY25E(vs. prior 50% YoY) mainlydriven by strongParentcoorders with share gains(50%+ in thermal, major share in ADAS). Foroverseas,BYDE expectedrapid clientexpansion in Europein 2026. AI servers:liquid cooling,power/HVDC,800G/1.6Ttransceiver/CPO.BYDEexpectedAIserver ODMrevenue ofRMB3-5bnin FY25Eand targetedmassproductionofliquid cooling productsforone major overseasCSP in 2H25E.Mgmt. alsotargetedmass productionof800Gtransceiversin 2H25E and1.6Tin 1H26E, while HVDC productsfor server rack will start shipment in late 2026or 2027givenclient qualificationsweresecured earlier. Related reports: Takeaways from mgmt. visit: Appleorder win, auto rapid ramp and AIserver biz expansion(link) 1Q25 earnings flat YoY; 2025positive outlook backed by auto/AIand limited tariff impact-29 Apr2025 (link) 4Q24 earnings dragged by one-offexpenses; auto/AI/Apple ramp todrive growth in 2025-26 Mar 2025(link) 2H24 first take: NP miss on weakGPM; Positive on auto/AIserver/Apple in 2025-25 Mar 2025(link) 2Q25Results review Earnings revision Valuation Maintain BUY withnewSOTP-based TP of HK$47.37 We maintain our positive view on BYDE’s outlook in FY25E and expect improving revenuemix will continue to drive GPM recovery inFY25/26E. We maintain BUY andour TPisbased on SOTP valuation to reflect BYDE’s business diversification with different growthprofiles and visibility. OurnewSOTP-basedTP of HK$47.37impliesrollover16.3xFY26E P/E(vs prior 16.2xFY25E P/E). We assignsame set of P/E multiples:15x P/E to its assembly EMS business,15x for Jabil iPhone casing and15x P/E for component business,given Android’s businessmargin recovery and Apple’s business expansion. Weassigntarget multiple to18x for newintelligent and NEV segments to reflect their growth potential and higher earnings visibility. Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGMestimates Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGMestimates Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflecthis or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong KongSecurities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendardays prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) c