弥合差距：了解英美生产率脱钩（英）

Bridging the Gap:Understanding the UK-USProductivity Decoupling Leonardo Indraccolo SIP/2025/112 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on July 1, 2025. This paper is alsopublished separately as IMF Country Report No 25/205. 2025AUG IMF Selected Issues PaperEuropean Department Bridging the Gap: Understanding the UK-US Productivity DecouplingPrepared by Leonardo Indraccolo Authorized for distribution by Luc EyraudAugust2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on July 1, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/205. ABSTRACT:The UK’s productivity gap with the US has widened over the past two decades, with productivitygrowth rates decoupling after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper complements existing studies byusing sectoral and firm-level data to discuss different microeconomic drivers of the diverging trends. While theloss of pre-GFC growth engines, in particular the leverage-driven boom in the financial sector, accounts for alarge part of the productivity slowdown relative to the US, it is only part of the explanation. Outside the financialsector, the UK’s publicly listed companies, especially frontier firms, have lagged behind the US due to asignificant decline in post-GFC total factor productivity (TFP) growth, resulting in widening efficiency gapswithin firms. We discuss how reduced investment in intangible capital following the GFC, along with lower R&Dspending compared to the US, may contribute to subdued TFP growth among UK firms. To revive productivity,this analysis suggests a two-pronged approach aimed at: 1) building on the UK’s strengths and revitalizingtraditional growth engines, especially the financial and ICT sectors; and 2) fostering a more conduciveenvironment to business innovation through greater access to scale-up finance and continued efforts to retainhigh skilled individuals. Bridging the Gap: Understandingthe UK-US ProductivityDecoupling United Kingdom Prepared by Leonardo Indraccolo1 UNITED KINGDOM SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByEuropean Department Prepared By Leonardo Indraccolo BRIDGING THE GAP: UNDERSTANDING THE UK-US PRODUCTIVITY DECOUPLING A. Introduction: The Decoupling From the US __________________________________________3B. UK’s Productivity Puzzle: A Review of Existing Explanations __________________________5C. Breaking Down Aggregate Productivity: Sectoral Patterns ___________________________7D. Has Resource Misallocation Played a Big Role? ____________________________________10E. Understanding the Within-Firm Productivity Growth Divergence __________________12F. Possible Determinants of Firm-Level R&D Investment _____________________________16G. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations ________________________________________17 BOX 1. Description of the Datasets __________________________________________________________5 FIGURES 1. UK-US Aggregate Labor Productivity Decoupling ____________________________________42. Sectoral Structure UK-US_____________________________________________________________83.Sectoral Productivity Patterns ________________________________________________________94. Share of Businesses With Broadband Download Internet Speedat Least 100 Mbit _____________________________________________________________________105.Olley-Pakes Decomposition of Aggregate Productivity ____________________________116.Distribution of Employment by Productivity Deciles _______________________________127. Firm-Level TFP Growth UK–US _____________________________________________________138. Distribution of TFP Growth of Frontier and Laggard Firms _________________________149. Labor Productivity of Frontier and Laggard Firms __________________________________1410. Investment in Intangible Capital __________________________________________________1511. R&D Spending by Publicly Listed Firms ___________________________________________1512. Net Equity Issuance of UK and US Listed Firms ___________________________________1613. Venture Capital Investment in ICT Sector, 2023 ___________________________________16 ANNEX I. Productivity Trends in Compustat Data and National Accounts _____________________________19 APPENDIX I. Mathematical Appendix_____________________________________________________________________21 References____________________________________________________________________________________23 BRIDGING THE GAP: UNDERSTANDING THE UK-USPRODUCTIVITY DECOUPLING1 The UK’s productivity gap with the US has widened over the past two decades, with productivitygrowth rates decoupling after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper complements existingstudies by using sectoral and firm-level