宏观谨慎的仓储行业：将 Segro 评级下调至减持

Macro-wary warehouses:Downgrading Segro to UW H1 2025 was again more of the same story as cyclicalslowdown continued due to an unsupportive and uncertainmacro. We advocate for an acquisition-led or better-yieldingCEE development strategy. We downgrade Segro to UW andreiterate OW on ARG, BBOX, CTP and WDP. European Real EstateNEUTRALUnchanged European Real Estate Paul May, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 1444paul.j.may@barclays.comBarclays, UK Kanad Mitra+91 (0)22 6175 1793kanad.mitra@barclays.comBarclays, UK Listen The broader warehouse market remains under pressure:In the operational market, take-upwas muted and down 4% YoY, and as vacancy rates continue to tick higher in almost all majorEuropean markets, market rental growth has largely stalled. Investment volumes fared better inH1 being up 5% YoY but remain 9% below 10-year average for H1. Eleanor Frew, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 0748eleanor.frew@barclays.comBarclays, UK We downgrade Segro to UW, while we see similar or better exposure through acombination of BBOX, WDP, CTP or Argan:Segro’s HY results noted our foreseen risk oflowered annual capex driven by slower take-up of warehouse space and delays in tenants’decision making (see Conviction with Catalysts, 14 July 2025). As noted the market remainstough (see Market Update - More of the same ), and we therefore place an even greater weighton current cash flow and acquisition-led growth within Western European-exposed warehouselandlords. Despite the shares having already underperformed, Segro still delivers a lower cashflow yield (FY25E 5.6% rising to 6.3% by FY29E) than our OW-rated warehouse coverage (simpleaverage 6.1% in FY25E, rising to 7.7% by FY29E). We believe the subdued take-up environmentmay continue longer than management had anticipated. Management had talked about amaterial turnaround on the FY24 results, which has thus far failed to materialise. They againtalked of an expected recovery on the HY25 call. We believe this strategy pins a lot of hope onmacro recovery and will put further pressure on the group’s rental growth prospects anddevelopment-led growth. Furthermore, as also discussed in our recent positive update on Merlin (OW, see Delivering...reiterate OW, PT to €14.1, 5 Aug 2025), while we are positive on the Data Centre market, we seemore attraction in Merlin and Tritax Big Box to gain exposure to this theme.When we upgradedSegro post its £900m equity raise in Feb 2024, this was largely predicated on our belief thatSegro would be aggressive acquirers of attractively priced assets. This has not proven to be the Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 20.Completed: 18-Aug-25, 04:30 GMTReleased: 18-Aug-25, 04:35 GMTRestricted - External case, and we see WDP (OW) has been more active in pivoting its investments from developmentinto acquisitions. As such, given Segro’s lower cash flow yield and slower growth than our preferred OW-ratedwarehouse exposures – CTP, WDP and Tritax Big Box – we d/g to UW, with a 550p PT. If thecompanies traded at our various PTs then a combination of our preferred companies wouldofferexposure to more attractive geographies (Eastern European development in CTP/ WDP), amore acquisition-led growth story (WDP/BBOX), and higher earnings growth to Segro. The Story in 6 Charts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Market Update - More of the same . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Changes to models and estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Rating and Valuation Approach. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 The Story in 6 Charts FIGURE 1. Take-up remains muted Source: CBRE, Barclays Research Market Update - More of the same Cyclical slowdown continues operationally, investment market strong Warehouses havesufferedfrom a cyclical slowdown post the pandemic as: 1) excess-demandduring the pandemic has given way to more subdued demand since and 2) supply, which wascurtailed due to lockdowns, materially increased in anticipation of continued strong demand,but is now just leading to increased vacancy. We originally highlighted the issue in Slowdown -It's Cyclical (11 Apr 2025), and continuation of the cyclical slowdown with pre-letting continuesto be an issue. Over the years since the Global financial crisis, companies have relied ondevelopment being the stro