机器人业务成为新增长引擎

公司报告：速腾聚创(02498 HK) Company ReportWemaintain"Buy",and increase TP to HK$46.40.RoboSense(the“Company”),posted strong revenue growth in 2025Q2 in the Roboticssegment,andmoderate growth in the ADAS segment. Therefore, weadjustour2025-2027 revenue forecaststoRMB2,446mn(-6.8%)/ RMB3,756mn(+2.4%)/RMB5,227mn(+5.2%), respectively.We expect adjustednet profitexpected to turn positive in4Q25.Our TPis based ona SOTP 2026F EV/Svaluation of2.0x for the ADAS segment and 10.0x for the robotics segment.This results ina 8.4x/5.5x/3.9x 2025-2027 EV/S Ratio.We rollover ourvaluation methodology to using2026 multiples tomore accurately capture thegrowth ofthe Company’s fast growing robotics segment. 评级：买入(维持) 研究报告TheCompany’s robotics segment revenue tripled YoY due tobreakthroughsin the E1R and Airy products in multiple markets,including robot lawn mowers, food delivery and humanoid robotics.TheCompany’s partners in the robot lawn mower market includeseveral globaltop5 lawn mower manufacturerswithorder volume already in the seven digitunitrange.In unmanned delivery,the Company has collaborated withMeituan,Neolix,White Rhino,COCO Robotics and two top tier deliveryplatforms in North America. In the field of humanoid robotics, the Companyhas collaborated with 20 leading humanoid robot companies, including Unitreeand Dobot. Given the potential of this market, strong purchasing power ofcertain segments ofrobotics marketand the quality of RoboSense’s partners,we believe this market will grow significantlymovingforwards. Share price股价:HK$39.020 Stock performance Equity Research Report证券Machinery SectorThe Company’s ADAS segment revenue significantly recoveredin thequarter, primarily due to fewer design win conversions to revenue in2025Q1.However, ADAS revenue missed our expectation of RMB386 mnRMB, primarily due to mass production of the EMX LiDAR being in2025Q3 rather than in 2025Q2 as we predicted.Total revenue for 2025Q2was RMB271 mn, down 10.5% YoY but up 18.6% sequentially.ADAS revenuemissed our expectation of RMB386 mn RMB, primarily due to mass productionof the EMX LiDAR being in 2025Q3 rather than in 2025Q2 as we predicted.LiDAR product sales volume was 123.8k, up 4.6% YoY. ADAS LiDAR ASPwas RMB2,193, down-14.4% YoY and-7.3% sequentially. Gross margin forthe segment increased by4.4 ppt sequentiallyto 19.4%. TheASPdecline andthegross marginincrease is due to productmixincludingnewer MX and EMXproducts, which sell at a lower price but have higher margins due to lowerproduction costs.The key innovation for reducing LiDAR prices is theintegrationof the core receiver system and echo-feature recognitionfunction into one single SPAD-SOC chip,which simplifies the signal flowchain,lowers power consumption,enhances signals completeness andconsistency,thusdecreasing the cost of raw materials per LiDAR.Weexpect revenue to pick up significantly in the2H25due todeliveries of massproduction and deliveries of EMX LiDAR. Catalyst:earnings reports validating delivery of the Company’s roboticsLiDARvolume. Risks:Lower-than-expectedrobotics ASPand/or market share gaindue toenhanced competition within the industry.[Table_ Company Rating Definition The Benchmark:Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months TheBenchmark:Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months (1)The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of theissuer mentioned in this Research Report.(2)The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.(3)Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited and/or its subsidiaries do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization ofthe issuer mentioned in this Research Report.(4)Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships withRoboSense Technology Co., Ltd,MeituanandSHENZHEN DOBOT CORP LTDmentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months.(5)Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited and/or its subsidiaries are making, or will make a market in the securities in respect ofMeituanmentioned in this Research Report.(6)GuotaiJunan International Holdings Limited and/or its subsidiarieshave not employed an individual serving as an officerof the issuermentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated withGuotai JunanInternational Holdings Limited and/or its subsidiaries. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai JunanSecurities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan").Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companiescovered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager,sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment str