谁来承担拉丁美洲和加勒比国家的燃油税负担？（英）2025

Copyright © 2025, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / World Bank 1818 H Street N.W. Washington D.C.20433, United States of AmericaTelephone: (202) 473-0000 Internet: www.worldbank.orgIn Spanish: www.bancomundial.orgEmail: feedback@worldbank.org Rights Reserved This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do notnecessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governmentsthey represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in thispublication. Rights and Permissions The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank encourages thedissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of this workpromptly, provided the sources are acknowledged. Table of Contents Acknowledgements............................................................................................4Executive Summary.............................................................................................5 1. Introduction......................................................................................................8 2. A Framework to Link Energy Taxation and Household Welfare...... 10 2.1.Fuel taxation affects the welfare costs of climate change........132.2. Fuel taxation affects households as consumersand income earners................................................................................14 3. Factors influencing the short-term welfare effectsof fuel tax and subsidy reforms................................................................ 17 4. Assessing the short-term welfare and distributionalimplications of fuel tax reforms.............................................................. 26 4.2.Ranking the impacts of fuel tax reforms: which fuels mattermost and to whom?...............................................................................28 4.3. The welfare and distributional effects of increasingand aligning tax rates across fuels based on their emissions.36 5. Concluding remarks and policy discussion............................................ 48 6. References..................................................................................................... 52 7. Annex A: Additional tables and figures................................................. 57 Acknowledgments This study was prepared by Ruth Llovet Montañés (Economist, ELCPV) and Carolina Mejía-Mantilla (Senior Economist, ELCPV) as a background study for the regional report titled“Taxing and Subsidizing Energy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Insights from a TotalCarbon Price Approach” (World Bank 2025). Overall guidance was provided by Bill Maloney(Chief Economist, LCR, LCRCE), Oscar Calvo Gonzalez (Regional Director, ELCDR), and CarlosRodríguez Castelán (Practice Manager, ELCPV). The core team included Lucía Echeverría(Consultant, ELCPV) and Desiree González (Senior Operations Assistant, ELCPV). GustavoCanavire Bacarreza (Senior Economist, ELCPV) was co-TTL in the early stages of this project. The extended team included the following poverty and equity country teams: (1) Brazil:Gabriel Lara-Ibarra (Senior Economist, ELCPV) and Kajetan Trzcinski (Consultant, ELCPV);(2) Jamaica: Roy Katayama (Senior Economist, ELCPV) and Mikhail Matytsin (Data Scientist,EPVGE); (3) Mexico: Samuel Freije-Rodriguez (Lead Economist, ELCPV) and Mariel CeciliaSiravegna (Consultant, ELCPV); (4) Paraguay: Eliana Rubiano Matulevich (Senior Economist,ELCPV), Diego Tuzmán (Consultant, ELCPV), Gonzalo Rivera Gallegos (Consultant, ELCPV),and Victor Gamarra Florentin (Consultant, ELCPV); (5) Peru: Eliana Rubiano Matulevich (SeniorEconomist, ELCPV) and Gonzalo Rivera Gallegos (Consultant, ELCPV); and (6) Uruguay: RuthLlovet Montañés (Economist, ELCPV) and Lourdes Rodríguez (Senior Economist, ELCPV). Theteam also benefited from inputs and comments by the Economic Policy team in Latin Americaand the Caribbean, including Daniel Navia Simon (Senior Economist, ELCMU), Anna-MariaGöth (Junior Professional Officer, ELCMU), and Ana Francisca Urrutia (Senior Economist,ELCMU). The team is grateful for comments received from Samuel Freije-Rodriguez (Lead Economist,ELCPV) and Eliana Rubiano Matulevich (Senior Economist, ELCPV). It is particularly grateful tothe peer reviewers: Ruth Hill (Lead Economist, EPVGE), Guillermo Vuletin (Senior Economist,LCRCE), Kevin Carey (Program Manager, EFICT), and Carolyn Fischer (Research Manager,DECSI). The work was partially funded by theGlobal Tax Programand the Whole of Economy TrustFund of the World Bank. Executive Summary Understanding the welfare and distributional impacts of fuel tax and subsidy reforms iscrucial for their effective implementation.Reforms that raise fossil fuel prices potentiallylead to lower energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions a