支持保加利亚、罗马尼亚和斯洛伐克的边缘化家庭试点评估报告（英）2025

Supportfor MarginalizedHouseholdsin Bulgaria,Romania, and SlovakiaPublic Disclosure Authorized Pilot Evaluation Report Social Protection & Jobs ©2025The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Some rights reserved. This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarilyreflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assumeresponsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use theinformation,methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and other informationshown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or theendorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citation of works authored by others does not mean the World Bank endorses theviews expressed by those authors or the content of their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of TheWorld Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work maybe reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank. 2025. Support for Marginalized Households in Bulgaria, Romania, andSlovakia. Pilot Evaluation Report.© World Bank.” Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank,1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Sample credit for a non-WB image: © Ami Vitale / Panos Pictures. Usedwith the permission of Ami Vitale / Panos Pictures. Furtherpermission required for reuse.Sample credit for a WB image: © Curt Carnemark / World Bank. Further permission required for reuse. Acknowledgments This report was prepared byLubica Hamarova (consultant, HECSP), Theresa Jones(consultant,HECSP),Lara Lebedinski(consultant, HECSP), Anca Monica Marin (consultant, HECSP), and Vera Borisova Veleva(consultant, HECSP)under the supervision ofLucian Pop(senior social protection specialist,HECSP).Jorge Luis Castaneda Nunez(economist,DIME) providedtechnical guidance throughout the designand analysis phases of theevaluation.The team is grateful toAna Maria Munoz Boudet (leadeconomist,HGNDR)andValerie Morrica (seniorsocialdevelopmentspecialist, SCASO)for valuable advice andfeedback as peer reviewers. The project was financed by theEuropean Commission through theSupporting Bulgaria, Romania andSlovakia toAddressSocio-economicExclusion Trust Fund (TF085534). The opinions, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein do not reflect the views of the WorldBank, its board of executive directors, or the governments they represent. Table of Contents Introduction...............................................................................................................................11.Pilot Overview....................................................................................................................31.1. Planned Intervention......................................................................................................31.2. Pilot Localities.................................................................................................................52.Evaluation Objectives and Methodology.........................................................................132.1. Theory of Change and Objectives of the Evaluation.....................................................132.2. Methodology.................................................................................................................143.Findings............................................................................................................................233.1. Beneficiaries’ Profile.....................................................................................................233.2. Process Evaluation........................................................................................................313.3. Outcome Evaluation......................................................................................................494.Summary of Findings.......................................................................................................59Annex 1. Tables and Figures.....................................................................................................62Annex 2 Trend Analysis and RCT Specifications.....................