全球消费者展望：全球不确定性时期的消费者支出

CHIEF ECONOMISTSROUND TABLE Consumer Spendingin the times of Speakers and Discussants Alex Boersch Homi Kharas Anu Madgavkar Chief Economist & SeniorVice President forDevelopment EconomicsThe World Bank Group Deloitte EuropeChief Economist &Head of Research Vice President of StrategicEngagementsWorld Data Lab McKinsey & CompanyMcKinsey GlobalInstitute Partner World Data LabCo-Founder &Chief Economist What we’ll cover 1How things have changed 2How expectations have changed 3Different scenarios The Outlook for 2025 TotalSpending $113 T(2.9%) $63.7 T(3.1%) $60.3 T(3.4%) Decomposing2025SpendingGrowth Changing Expectations of Consumer ClassSpending 2025 January 2025$61.4 T(+$3.0 T)+5.1% Now Consumer Class Spending With new IMF projections, spending revisions are mostly negative in 2025 Europe, APAC, and the rest of the world all see revisions downwards APAC Revisions The UK and Poland show stronger than expected growth, whileGermany and France see the largest downward revisions Europe Revisions While the US is growing by $115 billion due to increased inflation revisions,China’s downward revision mostly stems from its deflation US and China Revisions ScenarioAnalysis Impact ofGlobal Uncertainty To analyze global uncertainty, we explored different scenarios: Baseline Scenario ●Monetary Policy:conditionsstabilize or ease due toimproved confidence.●Fiscal Policy:US reduces debtvia reforms; EU increases publicinvestment●Productivity Gains:Chinareduces barriers to entry,reforms to state-ownedenterprises ●Monetary Policy:US and EUlower interest rates; Japanraises rates.●Fiscal Policy:US and emergingmarkets increase public debt;EU debt ratio rises.●Trade:Continued high tradepolicy uncertainty. ●Monetary Policy:tighter globalfinancial conditions; rising riskpremiums.●Fiscal Policy:US tax cutsextended; no major reformselsewhere.●Trade:severe US-China tradewar; global tariffs increasesharply; heightened uncertainty. From these 3 scenarios… US consumers have the most to lose due to higher taxes in reform scenario Chinese consumers are severely affected by exchange rate uncertainty From these 3 scenarios… E.U. consumers have the most to win from higher public investments Tariff wars hit China’s middle class and the rich in the West Stronger global reforms drive a 5.8M middle-class surge in China,while Western gains are concentrated at the top Key Takeaways Consumer spending grows by $2T in 2025, $1T less than previouslyexpected. APAC sees a downgrade of $765B, driven by exchange rate fluctuations,inflation downgrades and slower growth. 3Silver spenders and US dominance Almost half of consumer spending growth in 2025 comes from Americans,and it’s concentrated in older age groups. 4US consumers have the most to lose, EU consumers the most to gainDownside risks hit the US consumers the hardest, while the EU couldunlock half a trillion with reforms. Speakers and Discussants Alex Boersch Homi Kharas Anu Madgavkar Chief Economist & SeniorVice President forDevelopment EconomicsThe World Bank Group Deloitte EuropeChief Economist &Head of Research Vice President of StrategicEngagementsWorld Data Lab McKinsey & CompanyMcKinsey GlobalInstitute Partner World Data LabCo-Founder &Chief Economist