英国经济展望：2025年夏季

Summer 2025 Series A. No. 19 National Institute UK Economic Outlook – Summer 2025ISSN 2753-9350© National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2025National Institute of Economic and Social Research2 Dean Trench StLondon SW1P 3HET: +44 (0)20 7222 7665E: enquiries@niesr.ac.ukW: niesr.ac.ukRegistered charity no. 306083 The National Institute of Economic and Social Research is an independent research institute,founded in 1938. The vision of our founders was to carry out research to improve understandingof the economic and social forces that affect people’s lives, and the ways in which policy can bringabout change. And this remains central to NIESR’s ethos. We continue to apply our expertise inboth quantitative and qualitative methods and our understanding of economic and social issuesto current debates and to influence policy. The Institute is independent of all party politicalinterests. Contents Foreword3 National Institute UK Economic Outlook – Summer 20254Key Messages4 1. The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United KingdomEconomic Background and Forecast Summary 66 Box A: New Evidence on Nowcasting Monthly UK GDP10Economic Policy17Fiscal Policy17Monetary Policy21The Outlook in Detail24Demand and Output24Supply and Costs30Risks to the Forecast35References37 Box B: Housing Divides – Cultural Diversity, Property Values, and the Uneven Geography of OpportunityinNorthern Ireland Box C: Human Capital and Stagnating Productivity in the United Kingdom43 2. Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions49The Need for Narrative and More Ambitious Policy49UK Distributional Analysis49UK Regional and Sectoral Analysis51Transport52 Box D: Understanding Productivity Variations across the United Kingdom58Policy Options for the Autumn Budget63Spending Cuts versus Investing in Work63Raising Tax on Workers or on Capital64Regenerating the Regions64Conclusion65References66 Forecast Tables 68 Foreword The Chancellor’s Trilemma The UK economy enters the second half of 2025 still confronting weak growth and stubborninflationary pressures. While external factors – including continued trade policy uncertaintyand persistent geopolitical risks – certainly matter, domestic challenges dominate the outlook.Chief among these is the Government’s increasingly acute fiscal predicament. Simply put, theChancellor cannot simultaneously meet her fiscal rules, fulfil spending commitments, and upholdmanifesto promises to avoid tax rises for working people. At least one of these will need to bedropped – she faces an impossible trilemma. Against that backdrop, ourSummer 2025 UK Economic Outlookforecasts GDP growth of 1.3 percent in 2025, slowing to 1.2 per cent next year, as trade headwinds and economic uncertaintyweigh on activity. We expect CPI inflation to remain elevated, projected at 3.3 per cent this yearand 2.8 per cent in 2026. Despite these inflationary pressures, we expect the Monetary PolicyCommittee to continue its plan of gradual easing, with two further quarter-point reductions inBank Rate this year and a further quarter-point cut in the first quarter of 2026. But the fiscal challenge looms largest. The Government is no longer on track to meet its “stabilityrule”, with our forecast suggesting a current deficit of £41.2 billion in the fiscal year 2029–30.With the Autumn Budget approaching, the Chancellor faces unenviable decisions. The SpendingReview has already set departmental budgets tightly until 2029, limiting scope for further cuts.Meanwhile, manifesto commitments restrict the options for tax increases. This leaves theGovernment either breaching its fiscal rules – risking higher borrowing costs or even marketinstability – or making politically difficult and economically damaging compromises at a timewhen, as Chapter 2 highlights, the poorest 10 per cent of UK households face a further declinein their living standards this year. Our view is that it will be crucial for the Chancellor to restore market confidence by demonstratingfiscal discipline. This will require a determined attempt to rebuild the fiscal buffer and that willinevitably involve gradual but sustained tax increases or spending cuts. In charting this path,the Government must prioritise protecting public expenditure that supports society’s mostvulnerable, while safeguarding public investment essential for sustainable future growth. David AikmanDirector of NIESRAugust 2025 National Institute UK Economic Outlook –Summer 2025 Key Messages JGDP is expected to grow modestly over the medium term – by 1.3 per cent in 2025and 1.2 per cent in 2026– as businesses report elevated uncertainty and trade policyvolatility weighs on UK exports. However, supportive fiscal policy and the rebound inbusiness investment in the first quarter of this year should continue to underpin growth. JInflation should fall gradually to target over the next three years, averaging 3.3 per centin 2025 and 2.8 per cent in 2026.Persistent but slowing wage