主题研究每月想法-谁害怕季节性。..-117096827

Galina PozdnyakovaResearch AnalystGalina.Pozdnyakova@db.com+44 207 547 4994 Executive summary: Our top ideas this month The tumultuous reaction to last week’s US payrolls report reinforced investor expectations of a pullback in theS&P 500. This has been increasingly anticipated amidst negative seasonality and concerns about trade deals. Executivesummary But the more pessimistic narrative about risk assets contrasted with a more upbeat theme last week in capitalmarkets as three M&A megadeals signalled how companies are responding to key geopolitical trends drivingmarkets and economies through dealmaking. They helped show why risk assets aside from tech may continue toperform well even with tariffs now more firmly in place. M&A: Whatthemegadealstell us1 So, this month we focus on key themes that are likely to support upward momentum in markets. Our conclusionis that these themes may resonate into the medium term and potentially become more powerful as corporatesresume dealmaking and the Fed begins its rate cutting cycle. Key market-moving themes this month: •M&A: What the megadeals tell us–we look at themes emerging from the 3 megadeals announced last weekand how they feed into our outlook for capital markets activity. For the US M&A, we expect the bounce-backlater this year and next to be stronger than normal owning to the very depressed level of M&A during the recentperiod of economic uncertainty. •Has volatility been too low?–we analyse how equity volatility has been tracking relative to its historicalpatterns and various gauges to show that it is far from signalling investor complacency. Instead, we highlightthat volatilities across asset classes have been moving more in tandem recently, potentially increasing thepassthrough of shocks across markets.•Liquidity tailwinds–even with the Fed still being on hold, plenty of other central banks have been cutting ratesin recent months and money supply across key economies has been growing. We highlight the implications andwhy this macro-driven support for risk assets may continue.•Cash is becoming more important–for both investors and corporates. Wetake a lookat what a shorter-duration world means for capital structures and stock markets. This theme is likely to accelerate as the Fedstarts cutting and the yield curve steepens further. Has volatilitybeen too low?2 Liquiditytailwinds3 Cash isbecomingmoreimportant4 M&A: What the megadeals tell us Three deals last week all seemdifferent,however, they align perfectly with thebiggest geopolitical trends driving markets and economies We discuss these issues in more detail in our piece:Three takeaways from three big deals The strange thing is that tech deals have been leading the M&A rebound compared withthe traditional types of deals (including those in the industrials and energy sector) thattypically lead a rebound due to their more reliable cashflow profile and ‘defensive’characteristics. That gives evidence to our view that ‘riskier’ deals (and related equity markets) will bestrong over the rest of the 2020s–despite the likelihood that interest rates will stay atmore elevated levels compared with last decade. We see the 1990s as a goodcomparison period. Another encouraging sign about the three big deals last week is that their fundingsources are all different. It is encouraging to see chief executives finally using theircompanies' stock in acquisitions and, at the same time, being happy to signal an intent toincrease leverage despite persistent interest rates. Such megadeals have also been propelling a rebound in US corporate dealvalues, especially relative to the recent slowdown in large buyouts in the US. We expect some large ‘industry-changing’ deals to be announced in the coming 6-12 months.Given the Trump Administration’s signals that it will be supportive of M&A markets, anycompanies that expect a long period of regulatory review of a potential M&A deal will need tostart that process soon so it can be completed before the end of Trump’s final term. Meanwhile, despite the optimism about European assets in H1 2025, dealmaking activity slidthere even more than in the US. Has volatility been too low? Despite recent concerns about low stock volatility, it remains in line withhistorical patterns and well within interquartile range since 1990. TheVixis also in line with recent averages when compared to realised vol, thathas compressed significantly in July, and longer-end contracts. Valuation concerns also remain contained. Many stocks that fell the hardestlast week weren’t the ones that rallied the most in preceding weeks. The current vol backdrop does show the rising macro-sensitivity of stockmarkets. It is notable that the correlation between various volatility metrics hasbeen rising, especially between rates and equity. Negative seasonality in August-September is one reason to doubt furtheradvances in the S&P 500. But the US stock index tends to fare better than mostother markets in Augu