美国农村制造业：K12行业伙伴关系计划（英）2025

Manufacturing inrural America: A planfor K–12–industrypartnerships A seismic threefold increase in advanced-manufacturing investmentcould transform rural America by driving economic growth, creatinghigh-quality jobs, and revitalizing communities. This article is a collaborative effort by Duwain Pinder, Nora Gardner, Sarah Tucker-Ray, and TracyNowski, with Charlie Crosby and Doug Scott, representing views from the McKinsey Institute forEconomic Mobility. scale. These stakeholders can pursue two majoractions to usher in a new era for rural America:First, renew their focus on providing studentswith core literacy, math, and critical thinking skills;and, second, implement quality, evidence-basedcareer-connected learning that bridges high school,postsecondary education, and the workplace. The US economyhas begun to undergo a seismicshift. The COVID-19 pandemic, geopoliticaldevelopments,1and a global AI tech race have ledexecutives to increase their focus on reshoring andresilience. Over the past five years, hundreds ofbillions of dollars in capital investments have flowedinto US advanced manufacturing, with leadingglobal companies making huge commitments.2 Sizing the opportunity Two features of this trend have so far goneoverlooked. The first is its potential benefits for ruralAmerica. Indeed, a McKinsey analysis found that63 percent of $1 trillion in announced advanced-manufacturing projects is anticipated to go tofacilities within 15 miles of rural communities.3 America’s push for resilience and self-reliancehas been underway for some time. According toa 2025 McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) report,4US companies have diversified their sources oftrade in recent years. The United States’ importconcentration, which measures a country’s relianceon a small number of trading partners, declinedby 18 percent from 2017 to 2024, reducing itstrade risk. Over that same time span, MGI finds,US trade flows shifted by 9 percent to moregeopolitically aligned nations, signaling anincreased emphasis on supply chain resilience.5Recent tariff announcements may result inadditional shifts. Together, these trends couldlead US companies to increase their focus onself-reliance. Such business investment could substantiallyincrease demand for qualified manufacturingworkers in the United States, potentially resultingin a 2.1 million-worker shortfall by 2030. This gaphighlights the second overlooked feature: the centralrole K–12 schools can play to ensure business andgovernments succeed in supporting the push toreshore. In particular, rural K–12 schools will be vitalin preparing students for future-oriented, tech-enabled careers in advanced manufacturing. Industry and K–12 schools have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to join forces and usher ina brighter future for rural America’s businesses,communities, and students. The benefits of such acollaboration could be enormous: about $20 billionfrom improved productivity and employee retentionand $34 billion in additional wages a year for ruralAmerican workers, according to McKinsey analysis. In addition to changing trade flows, risinginvestments in advanced-manufacturing facilitiesand related infrastructure reinforce the UnitedStates’ growing focus on reshoring. Since 2020,US and foreign manufacturers and suppliershave dramatically increased their investments inthe country. For instance, from January 2020to January 2024, annual construction spendingon manufacturing facilities grew by morethan $150 billion, on average—a threefold jump(Exhibit 1).6Similarly, greenfield foreign directinvestment in the United States rose roughlyfourfold from 2016 to 2024, reaching $231 billion.7 These transformative gains are by no meansguaranteed. They depend on a sufficient supplyof qualified workers, which in turn will requireK–12 schools and industry to collaborate closelyto develop and implement programs on a historic Exhibit 1<MCK252184 K12 Education archetypes>Exhibit <1> of <5> Construction spending on manufacturing facilities in the United Statesincreased threefold from January 2020 to January 2024. Average annual construction spending on manufacturing facilities, US,$ billion McKinsey & Company such as clean technology, semiconductors andelectronics, and biomanufacturing—and foundthat approximately 63 percent of that investmentwill be within commuting distance of rural America(Exhibit 2).8(For comparison, 30 percent of existingmanufacturing jobs are located in proximity to ruralcommunities.) More than half of the investmentsare concentrated in 20 heartland states.9Amongrural community archetypes, 35 percent of theinvestments are set to go to projects in or nearmiddle-America communities, with 26 percent in ornear manufacturing workshops. Rural communities could be well positioned tobenefit from these advanced-manufacturinginvestments. Research from McKinsey’s Institutefor Economic Mobility examined rural America andidentified six archetypes based on economic anddemographic factors (see