2025年下半年市场状况

H2 2025 3Introduction and Key Takeaways5Perspectives on the Innovation Economy7Macro Factors12Capital: Fundraising and Investment19VC-Backed Tech Benchmarks24AI: Breakthrough or Bubble?29Exits It’s not your dad’s venture ecosystem. Venture has evolved since westarted our careers. It has gone from a mere cottage industry to apillar of private markets and technological innovation. In the ’80s and’90s, a handful of venture funds—small by today’s standards—located in Boston and on Sand Hill Road were the epicenter ofventure. Today VC funds operate from coast to coast and draw onglobal pools of capital. Funds themselves are more sophisticated,utilize new structures to tap different pools of LP capital, and oftenblur the lines between venture, private equity (PE) and even privatedebt. And the level of sophistication will only increase asmegafundplatforms dominate the top end of the VC industry. $40B OpenAI deal are sending VC investments totals higher, butwhen we peek behind the curtain, we see the investment numbersremained stubbornly low for deals under $100M. What has changed since the beginning of the year is our outlook onIPOs. Our bearish outlook for IPOs in 2025 is looking more favorable,and it appears the IPO window is at least partially open—though themany have been down rounds. As we saw with the dot-comera, early adopters ofplatform shifts are often notthe market winners. Today’svaluations are starting tostretch rationality. It is likelymany companies won’tachieve high returns, butthe best companies couldget so big they make up forthe failures.” VC-backed tech companies have reached a new equilibrium.Revenue growth rates remain low and slow while profitability hasremained higher than in the past as companies stay focused onefficiency. The period of cost cutting, headcount reductions andpainful austerity measures seems to be over, and now it’s up tofounders and CFOs to stay the course and let companies grow. Amidst this backdrop of long-term evolution there is no shortage offast-paced changes. Tariffs continue to loom over tech companiesselling physical goods and threaten future inflationary headwinds.Beyond tariffs, changes in Washington are impacting everything fromimmigration and talent to secondary markets and LP tax regimes. Thequickness of these changes are adding a layer of uncertainty andvolatility as founders navigate the continued recalibration of theinnovation economy. As we look to the future, the promise of AI is a beacon on the horizon.Generative AI is likely the most powerful tool to come from theinnovation economy in the last two decades. But inventing atechnology is not the same as commercializing it. As we saw with thedot-com era, early adopters of platform shifts are often not themarket winners. Today’s valuations are starting to stretch rationality.It is likely many companies won’t achieve high returns, but the bestcompanies could get so big they make up for the failures. So how is the innovation economy faring today? Some things haveremained constant since the start of the year. Companies aregraduating from one series to the next at the lowest rates in history,and when they do graduate, it takes them far longer than it used to. AIis still the driving force of US VC investment, accounting for 58 centsof every dollar deployed in 2025. Unprecedented fundings like the We don’t know yet how this will play out, but hypercycles are part andparcel of venture. Each new invention builds on itself, failures spinout into new successes and the flywheel of innovation keeps turning. Marc CadieuxPresidentSVB Commercial Bankmcadieux@svb.com Mark GallagherHead of Investor CoverageSVB Commercial Bankmgallagher@svb.com Companies have reached a new equilibrium,balancing growth and profitability. Mega-deals push VC toward all-timehighs; smaller deals trend flat. Among the top 100 unicorns, foreign-born founders have an outsized impact. AI companies are less efficient: highburn multiples and low profit margins. Jump to Page Jump to Page AI labor displacement: limited for now, butteams are leaner.Jump to Page Venture podcast index tracks FOMOfrenzies and investor sentiment. The IPO window cracks open, especially forlarger companies.Jump to Page Distributions expand: There is notypical series today.Jump to Page “What you’re seeing today is the start of the institutionalization of venture.The industry is kind of like Cro-Magnon on the evolutionary scale from apeto human. We’re somewhere in the first third of the evolution.We willbecome an industry that looks more like PE given the number of companiesand the global scale and ambition of these businesses.” “The AI category is seeing revenue growth at an unprecedented rate—literally2-5X for early-stage companies vs. what we saw for prior generation SaaSstartups. There are ‘unknowns,’ though, as in any emerging category. Key metricslike NDR, TCV, gross margins, barriers to switching, etc.1are in many cases alsovery early in their developm