宏观周报：能源上游价格震荡，服务业消费需求增长

中观总览 上游：本周上游原材料行业呈现“内需弱、外需热”的分化格局。新能源相关材料（稀土、锂、镁）受益全球红利强势上行，传统大宗（铝、钢）及过剩品种（多晶硅）受制内需疲软与高库存，政策博弈与出口需求分化主导短期走势。 中游：本周“反内卷”深化供应调控，政策聚焦多晶硅并购、工业硅淘汰小炉型。制造业需求目前结构性复苏，汽车半钢胎开工率降幅收敛、家电旺季备货支撑铝板带，但建筑链持续疲软。 下游：本周服务消费持续火热，暑期文旅、运动、夜经济需求持续增长；本周政策加码个人消费贷款贴息，覆盖文旅、体育等8大服务领域，推动“供给提质—需求扩容”循环。纺织市场本周景气延续回落态势。 市场定价：。 细分行业 大农业：棕榈油价格持续上行，玉米价格回落；苹果库存回落，大豆油库存回升。 能源：受供需与地缘博弈主导的深度回调，本周国际油价震荡下行。 采矿业：有色方面，镍价格下行、铜库存回升；黑色方面全商品价格持稳，焦炭库存回落。 化工：本周苯乙烯价格延续下行态势，对二甲苯库存持续回落。 基建：本周混凝土价格小幅回升，袋装水泥价格回升。 地产：本周重点监控城市中，上海、重庆、厦门商品房销售提升。深圳商品房销售回落较多。 物流运输：铁路、公路运输持续回落；航空运输延续上行态势。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 目录 一、中观总览............................................................................................................................................4二、行业总览............................................................................................................................................52.1生产行业............................................................................................................................................................................52.2服务行业............................................................................................................................................................................5三、行业定价............................................................................................................................................6四、细分行业跟踪....................................................................................................................................104.1广义农业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.2化工行业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.3有色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.4黑色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.5基建行业..........................................................................................................................................................................124.6物流运输..........................................................................................................................................................................124.7汽车制造业......................................................................................................................................................................134.8地产行业..........................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1：三大产业用电量................................................................................................................................................................4图2：GDP分产业........................................................................................................................................................................4图3：通胀....................................................................................................................................................................................4图4：PMI....................................................................................................................................................................................4图5：生产行业工业增加值同比................................................................................................................................................5图6：生产行业PPI同比..............................................................................................................................................................5图7：纺织服饰市场景气指数....................................................................................................................................................6图8：上海出口集装箱结算运价指数........................................................................................................................................6图9：邮政营业数据：快递业务量............................................................................................................................................6图10：社会消费品零售同比......................................................................................................................................................6图11：行业市场定价..................................................................................................................................................................7图12：行业信用利差..................................................................................................................................................................8图13：细分行业价格汇总.....