宏观周报：关注能源上游价格波动

中观总览 上游：上游原材料市场受“反内卷”影响继续维持上涨。碳酸锂价格受江西停产预期及青海突发减产刺激，期现货周涨超10%；多晶硅在“反内卷”政策推动下价格上涨，头部企业自律限产带动硅片跟涨；甲酸、腈纶短纤等小品种因供应收缩显著上涨，废钢则因钢厂压价承压；受OPEC增产影响，本周国际原油价格回落近10%。 中游：钢铁行业在“反内卷”政策支撑下盈利率回升；化工领域聚丙烯产能利用率增加，下游开工率小幅上涨，但高温可能增加临停风险；有色金属加工中，铝加工开工率微降，其中铝线缆受电网交货支撑而铝型材受建筑需求拖累。 下游：国家发展改革委宣布，2025年第4轮人民币690亿元的消费品以旧换新补贴资金将于10月起下放。届时，全年累计拨付的3,000亿元补贴资金将全面落地。本轮补贴政策将覆盖家用电器、笔记本电脑、手机、电视等消费电子类产品。随着第4季度690亿元资金的下放，加上前期补贴资金的渗透，预计官方将持续刺激下半年的“换新潮”。 细分行业 大农业：本期玉米价格小幅回落，棕榈油和棉花价格回升；大豆油库存近期延续增加态势。 能源：受OPEC增产影响，国际原油本期回落近10%，天然气价格小幅回落。 采矿业：有色方面锌、镍价格上行，黑色方面螺纹、热卷价格持稳；有色铝、铅库存上行，黑色焦炭库存上行。 化工：本期苯乙烯、PTA价格小回落；甲醇库存上行。 基建：混凝土价格本期有所回升，水泥价格停止回落。 地产：本周重点监控城市中，上海、济南、重庆商品房销售数量增加。 物流运输：公路、铁路运输量回落。航空邮寄运输量增加；美西航线运价指数回落。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 目录 一、中观总览............................................................................................................................................4二、行业总览............................................................................................................................................52.1生产行业............................................................................................................................................................................52.2服务行业............................................................................................................................................................................5三、行业定价............................................................................................................................................6四、细分行业跟踪....................................................................................................................................104.1广义农业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.2化工行业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.3有色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.4黑色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.5基建行业..........................................................................................................................................................................124.6物流运输..........................................................................................................................................................................124.7汽车制造业......................................................................................................................................................................134.8地产行业..........................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1：三大产业用电量................................................................................................................................................................4图2：GDP分产业........................................................................................................................................................................4图3：通胀....................................................................................................................................................................................4图4：PMI....................................................................................................................................................................................4图5：生产行业工业增加值同比................................................................................................................................................5图6：生产行业PPI同比..............................................................................................................................................................5图7：纺织服饰市场景气指数....................................................................................................................................................6图8：上海出口集装箱结算运价指数........................................................................................................................................6图9：邮政营业数据：快递业务量............................................................................................................................................6图10：社会消费品零售同比......................................................................................................................................................6图11：行业市场定价..................................................................................................................................................................7图12：行业信用利差...........................................