住房繁荣与生产率增长

Housing Booms andProductivity Growth Yuanchen Yang, Flora Lutz, Lucy Liu WP/25/161 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the authors and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the authors and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025AUG IMF Working Paper Western Hemisphere Department Housing Boomsand Productivity GrowthPrepared byYuanchen Yang,Flora Lutz,andLucy Liu Authorized for distribution byAshvin AhujaAugust2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper investigates the nexus between persistent house price increases and productivitygrowth in Canada, focusing on the collateral channel. We first present a stylized model explaining the mechanismof the colleteral channel. Using detailed firm-level data spanning from 2000 to 2023, the empirical analysis findsa negative correlation between firm productivity and its real estate holdings. Furthermore, rising house pricesdampen investment for firms with fewer tangible assets but stimulate investment for those with more. At theindustry level, while overall productivity may increase with rising house prices on average, industries withsignificanttangible asset holdings exhibit an opposite trend,suggesting potential resource misallocationassociated with persistent housing market boom. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Yang, Y., Lutz, F., Liu, Q., 2025. Housing Booms and Productivity Growth inCanada,IMF Working PaperNo. 2025/161. Housing Booms and ProductivityGrowth Prepared byYuanchen Yang,Flora Lutz, andLucy Liu Contents Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................5Figure 1: House price and productivity growth in Canada and selected advanced economies..............5Figure 2: House price appreciation in Canada........................................................................................7Figure 3: House price and productivity growth in Canadian provinces....................................................7Stylized Model.....................................................................................................................................................9Data....................................................................................................................................................................12Empirical Analysis............................................................................................................................................13Step 1. Firm productivity and initial real estate.............................................................................................13Table 1. Firm Productivity and Tangible Asset Holdings.......................................................................13Step 2: Rising house prices and firm investment.........................................................................................14Table 2. Rising house prices and firm size............................................................................................16Step 3. Aggregate effects at the industry level.............................................................................................16Table 3: Aggregate effects at the industry level....................................................................................16Conclusions.......................................................................................................................................................18Annex I. House Price and Productivity Growth in Canadian Provinces......................................................19Figure I.1: House price and productivity growth in Canadian provinces................................................19Figure I.2: House price and productivity growth in Advanced Economies.............................................20References.........................................................................................................................................................21 Introduction Followingadecade-longincrease inhouse pricesin Canada, the COVID-19 pandemic brought house prices tonewhistorical highs.At the same time, productivity growth in Canada has remained sluggish over the pastdecades.As can be seen in Figure 1, thisnegative correlation betweenlagged realhouse pricegrowthandproductivity growth is evident not only in Canada at the aggregate and provincial level, but also in several otheradvanced economies, including Australia, the UK, and selected European countries.1Compared to otheradvanced economies,therelationship seems to be particu