食品配送投资拖累短期盈利但目标明确

Food delivery investment weighed on near-term earnings but targetis clear Target PriceUS$49.40(Previous TPUS$50.00)Up/Downside52.0%Current PriceUS$32.51 JD.com (JD) reported (14Aug)2Q25results: revenue was RMB356.7bn, up22.4% YoY (2Q24:1.2%；1Q25:15.8%),6%ahead ofbothour forecastandBloombergconsensus, driven bybetter-than-expectedJD Retail (JDR) revenuegrowth andincrementallogistics revenue contributed from food delivery (FD)business. Non-GAAPNPwas RMB7.4bn,down49% YoYdue to incrementalinvestment inFD,but38% ahead of consensus,driven bya16% beat on JDR’sOP.Operating loss of RMB14.8bn for new businesses was wider than ourprevious expectationofRMB10.6bn,owing to moreaggressive-than-expectedinvestment in FD.Management highlighted the encouraging early-stagesynergy with e-commerce business,including>40% YoY growth inquarterlyactive users(QAU)andshopping frequency for JD platform in 2Q25, and steadyincrease in cross-sellingfrom FD usersto e-commerce business. We expect theoperating loss of FD to widen QoQ in 3Q25 given rising order volume, althoughthis could be partly offset by improving unit economics. We believe synergieswith e-commerce business andsustainability, as well asgreatervisibilityongroup-level earnings growth remain key drivers for stock price.Our DCF-basedTPis fine-tuned to US$49.4(was US$50.0)per ADS to account for likelyheavier-than-expected investment in FD. Maintain BUY. China Internet SaiyiHE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Joanna Ma(852) 3761 8838joannama@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data JDR delivered robust revenue and earnings growth.JDR inked revenueof RMB310.1bn in 2Q25, up 21% YoY(1Q25: 16%),5% better thanconsensus, whileits OPreached RMB13.9bn, up 38% YoY (1Q25: 38%),andOPM of JDR was upby0.6pptsYoYto 4.5%, driven by ongoing GPMexpansion, aheadof consensus at 3.9%.To account for the relativelyhighbase in Aug 2024 due to national subsidy program, we are anticipating YoYrevenue/OPgrowthof10/11%forJDRin3Q25E,to reachRMB247.6bn/12.9bn. Stronglogistics and other service revenue growth aided by FDexpansion.By revenue stream, within net product revenue,electronics andhome appliances(E&HA)revenue wasup23% YoY (1Q25:17%),stillboosted bythenational subsidy program. General merchandiserevenuewas up16% YoY (1Q25:15%), thanks to solid revenue growth of fashionand supermarket categories. Netservicesrevenue also saw acceleration inYoY growth in2Q25, among whichmarketplace and ads revenue was up22% YoY(1Q25:16%)driven by solid GMV growth, and logistics and otherservice revenue was up 34% YoY(1Q25: 13%)driven by incrementalrevenue contribution from FDrelated deliverybusiness. Investment on food deliverybroughtearly-stagesynergies.Operatingloss generated from new businesses was RMB14.8bn in 2Q25(2Q24:RMB695mn), mainly due to the investment to support FD businessgrowth.However, theinvestment has delivered someearly-stageresults: both theno. ofQAUsand user shopping frequency on JD’s platform grew over 40%YoY in 2Q, and management noted that cross-sellingratio from FD users tosupermarket, lifestyle services and electronic accessory categories is onanimproving trend. Management guided to focus more on refining subsidystrategy,improving fulfilment efficiency,and enhancing system andinfrastructure capability to improve the profitability of FD business in thelonger term. Source: FactSet Update on shareholder return.JDhashalted share repurchasessince1Q25earnings release,and the remaining amount under the sharerepurchase programisUS$3.5bnandwill beeffectivethroughAugust 2027.However, long-term commitmenttoshareholder return remains unchanged,per management. Business forecasts update and valuation DCF-based target price of US$49.4 Our target priceofUS$49.4isderived fromtheDCF valuation methodology (WACC of11.8% and terminal growth of 1.5%; both unchanged). Risks 1) Consumption recovery takes longer than we expect; 2) more intensified-than-expectedbusiness competition; 3) moreaggressive-than-expected investment on FD businessmayweigh onearnings growth. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in