Meta（META US）- 2025年第三季度业绩：营收表现稳健，但AI投资或拖累短期盈利增长

3Q25 results:solid topline performance; but AIinvestment may drag ST earnings growth Target PriceUS$880.00(Previous TPUS$860.00)Up/Downside17.1%Current PriceUS$751.67 Metareported 3Q25 results: total revenue grew by 26% YoY to US$51.2bn, 3%ahead of consensus estimate; net incomeexcludingone-time tax charge was upby 19% YoY to US$18.6bn, better than consensus estimate of US$17.2bn.4Q25E total revenue guidance of US$56-59bn (+16%-22% YoY) is in line withthe consensusestimate(US$57.3bn).The outlook oftotal expenses (US$114-118bn)and capex(US$70-72bn)in FY25E is also broadly in-line,butmanagement’s comment on FY26E expenses&capex outlook(i.e.totalexpense % growth rate and capex dollar growth will be notably higher in FY26than FY25) hasarousedinvestors’concern on margin and investment ROI, in ourview. Despite solid AI progress, we still expect AI investment willaffectshort-termmargin,and thus trim ourFY26-27E earnings forecast by 2-4%. We roll over ourvaluation window to FY26E andfine-tuneourtargetprice to US$880.0 based on30x FY26E PE (previous: US$860.0 based on30x FY25E PE). Maintain BUY. Internet Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hk Solid ads revenuegrowthdriven by AIadvancement.Family of Apps(FoA)ad revenue increased by 26% YoY to US$50.1bn in 3Q25. Adimpression was up by 14% YoY in 3Q25, mainly thanks to the AI-optimizedrecommendationsystem and solid user engagement growth of videoservices. Reels nowhavean annual run rate of over US$50bn. Average priceper ad grew by 10% YoY in 3Q25, primarily driven by the enhanced adperformance. FoA other revenue was up by 59% YoY to US$690mn in 3Q25,supported by the strong growth of WhatsApp paid messaging. Managementguidedtotalrevenueto grow by 16-22% YoY to US$56-59bn in 4Q25, drivenby thecontinued strong ad revenue growth,partially offset by the decline inReality Labs revenue. Joanna Ma(852) 3761 8838joannama@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Source: FactSet Update on AI progress.We remain constructive on Meta’s AI development:1) AI recommendation system further drove 5%/10% more user time spenton Facebook/Threads in 3Q25; 2) Meta further improvedperformanceof itsfoundational ads modelAndromedain 3Q25, driving a 14%increasein adsquality onFacebook surfaces; 3) Meta also usesAI to improve adplacementefficiency, with the annual run rate of its end-to-end AI-automated adssolution surpassing US$60bn. Looking ahead, the company will continue toleverage AI to improve its recommendation system, contentunderstandingand marketing performance,which will drive strong revenue growth inFY26E, permanagement. AI investment toaffectshort-term margin.For FY25, Metaguidedtotalexpenses to grow by 22-24% YoY to US$116-118bn (previous: US$114-118bn), and capex to grow by 78-84% YoY to US$70-72bn(previous:US$66-72bn). And management expects capex dollar growth and totalexpenses % growth rate will be significantly higher in 2026 than 2025, whichimplies >US$146bn total expenses (>+24% YoY) and >US$105bn capex inFY26E (>+45% YoY). The expenses growth will be primarily driven by theinfrastructurecosts and employeeexpenses.We expect the investment toaffectshort-term margin and model OPM to drop by c.5pptsYoY in 2026E. Source: FactSet Business forecasts update and valuation Valuation We value Meta at US$880.0per share based on30x 2026E P/E. Our target PE multiple isa premium to the sector average (21x), reflecting Meta’s strong leadership in global socialmedia space and capability todrive long-term earnings growth. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related tothe specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in ortraded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2)willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15%over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected t