稳健的业绩与更具竞争力的车型即将推出

Geely Automobile (175 HK) Solid earnings with more competitive models ahead Target PriceHK$25.00(Previous TPHK$24.00)Up/Downside31.9%Current PriceHK$18.95 Maintain BUY.Geely’s2Q25earnings were in line with our prior forecast andbeat market expectation with itsQoQimprovementin GPM despiteaprolongedprice war. We expect its upcoming new models from different brands to be wellreceived, which could lift average selling price and gross margin. There is stillenough room for growth for Geely’s NEVs, as its current NEV model line-upsonly covera few sub-segments. We raise our FY25-26E net profit estimates by0.9%/1.2% to RMB17.7bn/18.6bn, respectively. China Auto Ji SHI, CFA(852) 3761 8728shiji@cmbi.com.hk Solid 2Q25 earningswith GPM beat.Geely’s 2Q25 revenue was about2% higher than our prior forecast.GPM widened by 1.3ppts QoQ to 17.1%despite amerely0.2% QoQ growth in sales volume, 1ppt higher than ourprojection. Although we underestimated selling and R&D expenses due tothe consolidation of Lynk & Co, Geely’s gross profit beat. This,along withstronger-than-expected equity income from joint ventures and associates,led to a 2Q25 net profit of RMB3.6bn, which was in line with our forecastand stronger than market expectation. Wenjing DOU, CFA(852) 6939 4751douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk Austin Liang(852) 3900 0856austinliang@cmbi.com.hk Still lots of growthpotentialfor its new NEVs.Geely appears tohavefound keys to making successful NEV models after the GalaxyE5.Webelievethat there isstillenough room for growth for Geely’s upcoming newNEVs, as the recently launched models (theE5,Starwish,Starship 7andXingyao 8) only coverpart of the small and compact segments, as well asthe medium-to-large sedan market. We expect the Galaxy A7,M9andXingyao 6,scheduledfor launchin 2H25,to be well received.We raise ourFY25E sales volume forecast from 3mn units to 3.02mn units. Stock Data Source: FactSet FY25-26E outlook.We revise up FY25E GPM forecast by 0.7ppts to 16.7%(2H25E: 17.0%), as its cost reduction efforts, especially from the integrationsynergies, appear to beat our prior expectation. We also raise sellingexpenses and finance coststo better reflect Lynk & Co integration, whichalso results in a 0.9% upward revision for our FY25E net profit forecast(RMB17.7bn). We raise our FY26E sales volume slightly to 3.26mn units,but reviseupFY26E GPM forecast by 1ppt to 17%. Accordingly, we raiseFY26Enet profit estimates by 1.2%to RMB18.6bn. Valuation/Key risks.We maintain our BUY rating and raise our target priceslightly from HK$24.00 to HK$25.00, based on 13x FY26E (prior 15xFY25E) P/E. Key risks include lower sales volume and/or gross margin thanwe expect, especially from new NEV models, as well as a sectorde-rating. Source: FactSet Related Report“China Autos-2Q25 earnings previewand 2H25 outlook”-11Jul2025 “Geely Automobile(175 HK)-Moresynergies to come”-16May2025 Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primaryresponsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about thesubject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst norhis/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report;(2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interestsin the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential lossof over 10% over next 12 months: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM HOLDSELLNOT RATED :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to performin-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 45/F,Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of ChinaMerchants Bank) Important DisclosuresThere are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained i