全球仓库自动化AMR领域的新星；香港市场的独特投资标的

A rising star in globalAMRforwarehouseautomation; a unique play in HK market Target PriceHK$26.70Up/Downside42.9%Current PriceHK$18.69 On the back of technologicalinnovationin autonomous mobile robots (AMR)with >800 end customers across 40 countries,Geekplus(72% revenue fromoverseas in 2024)is set to ride on the structural increase in the penetration rateof warehouse fulfilment AMRsover the coming years.Ourresults fromproductcomparison and selected customers’ paybackanalysisenhance our confidenceinGeekplus’scompetitive edges. We forecast Geekplus to deliver 34% revenueCAGR in 2024-2027E, and potentially achieve meaningful profit starting from2026E. Being thefirst warehouse AMR company listedonHKEX, we see goodscarcity value in the stock. Initiate withBUYwith TP ofHK$26.7(7.7x 2026EP/S). China Capital Goods Wayne FUNG, CFA(852) 3900 0826waynefung@cmbi.com.hk Jake Zhang(852) 3900 0849jakezhang@cmbi.com.hk Huge potential of AMR solutions.AMRsareplaying an indispensable rolein warehouse automation. They have transformed from simple materialmoversto solutionsfor far more complex scenarios.According to CIC, theglobal AMR solution market is expected to increase to RMB162bn in 2029from RMB39bn in 2024(CAGR:33%), driven by an increase in penetrationrate (as%of overallwarehouse automationsolutions revenue) from 8% in2024 to 20% in 2029. Stock Data Modular development capabilitiesto boost penetration.Geekplushadaglobal market share of 9% in terms of warehouse fulfilment revenuein2024 (ranked1stworldwide). We believe the success is attributable totheCompany’ssolutionsthatcomprise a series of modular components thatcan be easily integrated into the existing systems of customers withoutsignificant disruptions.ThishasenabledGeekplus to penetrate into differentdownstream industries muchmoreeasily. OuranalysisquantifieshowGeekplusboostsoperatingefficiencyforcustomers.As one of Geekplus’s customers,YesAsia (2209 HK, NR)hasapplied GeekplusAMR solutions since Oct 2022,which helped save~US$10mn within 2 years(reduction of labour cost ratio by~1.8ppt)andachievepaybackin just17 months. Moreover,thedaily throughput capacitywasboosted by 150%, and order accuracy rate was also elevated to99.99%.Theoutstandingresults promptedYesAsia tooffer another AMRcontract to Geekplusin2024 (project commencement inMay 2025). A uniqueHK-listedplay.Our TP ofHK$26.7is based on7.7x2026E P/S,equivalent to the mid-point between Symbotic(SYM US, NR)and AutoStore(AUTO NO, NR),the two major listed pure plays. We believe this is justifiedgiven Geekplus’s fast penetration in the global warehouse automationmarket. We think Geekplus should deserve a valuation premiumoverAutoStoregiven Geekplus’s much higher growthpotential.Earnings Summary Source: FactSet Contents Initate at BUY with TP of HK$26.7.............................................3 YesAsia Holdings (2209 HK)...........................................................................................4Global warehouse automation solution industry..............................................................6Huge potential of global AMR solutions...........................................................................7Warehouse fulfillment AMR is key part of AMR solutions...............................................8 Competitive Landscapeof Global AMR Solution Market.....10 Key entry barriers of AMR solution market....................................................................14 Business Overview...................................................................15 Geekplus’sAMR solutions.............................................................................................16Geekplus’s AMR technology infrastructure...................................................................22Geekplus’s sales channels............................................................................................25Customers......................................................................................................................28Suppliers........................................................................................................................29 InitateatBUYwith TP ofHK$26.7 There is arelatively wide range of valuations among the global listed players of warehouseautomation. We believe this is due to different factors such as (1) different solutions theseplayers offer, and (2) the revenue mix of warehouse automation in each company. Forexample, Symbotic(SYM US)is a pure play of warehouse automation with comprehensivesolutions. KION (KGX GR) also offers comprehensive solutions but warehouse automationonly accounts for part of its total revenue. Given that Geekplus is at the stage of turning from loss to profit making, we value Geekplusbased on price/sales ratio instead of earnings-based ratio. Our TP ofHK$26.7is based on7.7x 2026E P/S, equivalent to the mid-point betweenSymbotic and AutoStore(AUTO NO), the two majorlisted pure plays. We believe this isjust