2025年第二季度美国黄金需求趋势

Gold-backed ETFs save the day…again Highlights Higher gold prices continue to weigh on demand US demand fell 34% q/q to 124tin Q2. Stronger investment flows into Overall demand1in the US fell 34% q/q to 124t in the second quarter, butrose110% y/y, driven by strong ETF demand through the first half of the year.Consumer demand (jewellery + bar & coin) of 39t, fell 24% y/y. gold-backed ETFs helped offsetweakness in other areas of golddemand. Gold jewellery consumption continued its three-year downward trend, slipping7% y/y to 30t. In contrast, the value of jewellery demand jumped to $3bn – up49% q/q and 30% y/y – highlighting the impact of higher prices. North AmericanETF inflowsreached$21bn in H1. Through July they have addedanadditional US$2bn and are pacefor their second-strongest year onrecord. Bar and coin demand dropped to just 9t, the lowest since Q4’19, marking a 53%y/y decline. As a result, investment demand by value fell 35% y/y to US$929mn,making the US one of only two markets to register a decline in dollar terms thisquarter. On the technology side, demand linked to AI applications provided somesupport. However, two of the four major electronics fabrication hubs – the USand Japan – saw declines, falling to 15t (-10% y/y) and 19t (-1% y/y), respectively.Meanwhile, South Korea (+7t, 2% y/y) and Mainland China andHong Kong (+20t,2% y/y) recorded modest growth. Bullion exports have started theyear offstrong. The US has exported ~268t ofbullion related products throughMay. They are on pace to surpass2024 volumes. ETF demand helped anchor overall investment, with US-listed ETFs adding 70t inQ2 and 203t across H1. This brought total holdings to 1,785t (US$189bn inAUM) at the end of the quarter.2 The LBMA (PM) Gold Price hit anew record in June.The average quarterly price was a Total demand by sector in tonnes* record US$3,280.35/oz, up by 40%y/y and 15%q/q.For more information pleasecontact:research@gold.org In tonnage terms, demand has been robust, with NorthAmerican funds on track for their fourth-strongest year onrecord. Gold-backed ETFs to the rescue While higher gold prices continued to weigh on USconsumer demand, this was partially offset by strongdemand into gold-backed ETFs. Annual net cumulative demand (t) broken out by month* The shift is clear when looking at recent periods: in Q1 andQ2, ETF demand accounted for 70% (133t) and 56% (70t),respectively, of total US investment demand. That’s a sharpcontrast to the same period last year, when demand fell 9t,and well above the 10-year quarterly average of 19t. Key US Funds Snapshot Table 1: The four US listed funds below accounted for 88%of 1H’25 net cumulative inflows. Cumulative net flows for North American gold-backed ETFshave reached US$22bn in inflows through July – 99% ofwhich came from US based funds– and are on pace for theirsecond-strongest annual performance on record. Chart 3: North America on pace for second strongest yearon record Annual net cumulative flows broken out by month Additional callouts US trade sees gold exports strength The market is currently pricing in one to two rate cuts byyear-end, with the first cut expected at either the Septemberor October meeting and another possibly in December(Chart6). Through May of this year, the US has exported roughly 268tof bullion, compared to imports of 169t.3This is notablebecause the US has already exported about 60% of the totalvolume traded last year (451t). If the pace continues, exportvolumes could reach levels not seen since 2013 (740t) and2022 (701t). This outlook is consistent with betting markets. According toPolymarket, bettors are assigning a 82% chance of one cut atthe September meeting and an 90% chance by December. Annual US bullion trade balance (X-I)* The forward curve and analyst forecasts currently expectgold prices to end the year between $3,300 to $3,400/oz.This aligns with our base case from theMid-Year Outlook,which projects gold remaining rangebound (0-5%) in 2H. North America retail commentary Below are key takeaways from recent conversations withNorth American dealers on the trends that they are seeing inthe market: •Volumes are low in both wholesale and retail•There is more selling back to dealers, but the mix betweenbuying/selling is getting closer to 50/50 now that the pricehas become more rangebound•Institutional demand was very strong in March, April, andMay but has slowed down materially since then•Costco is still selling bullion at a discount to market price.Primarily due to the discount consumers receive bycombining the Costco credit card with their executivemembership•Tariffs are not a concern due to USMCA agreement, butconsumer purchasing power has declined due to theincrease in prices. As result, there is still uncertainty andnegative sentiment around buying gold at these levels•The current environment of low premiums and client sellbacks is likely challenging to a segment of retailers. clad with gold (HTS:7114) from