交易驱动因素：美洲HY 2025

A spotlight on mergers and acquisitions trends in 2025A spotlight on mergers and acquisitions trends in 2025 Contents Political sideshows Foreword: Dealmakers presson as Fed refuses to blink To the North, the Liberal Party of Canada won the federal electionsin April, securing Mark Carney’s first term as prime minister. Theformer central banker has laid out a plan focusing on promotinginternal trade and alleviating some of the pain felt from the current USadministration’s tariffs. What this means for the business environmentand company prospects remains to be seen. For now, dealmakersare sticking to what they know best – actively identifying and seizingupon opportunities. The US economy has sailed some turbulent seas in recent months. In Q1,real GDP fell by 0.2% annualized, only to reverse course. The GDPNowmodel from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates growth at anannual rate of 2.6% for Q2. This says a lot about the defining theme ofthe period: tariffs. Imports, which are deducted from growth estimates,surged at the start of the year in anticipation of these new levies. Thisis also partly why the Fed has been so reluctant to cut interest rates.Internally, while central bank policymakers remained data-dependent,a consensus began to solidify for eventual rate reductions, contingenton sustained disinflationary trends. Political friction has been dominating headlines in North America,drowning out what are largely benign macroeconomic conditions:moderate GDP growth, low unemployment, and, with the exceptionof Brazil, easing inflation. This cautious optimism permeated credit markets. Broadly syndicatedloan and high-yield bond markets in the US saw a notable looseningof credit conditions toward the end of Q2. Resurgent investor appetiteand increased lender competition led to more favorable borrower termsand more accommodating financing conditions. Outlook:Americas heat chart Mergermarket’s heat map of future M&A activity positions telecoms,media & technology (TMT) firmly at the top, with 686 ‘companies forsale’ stories published in H1, 27% of the cross-industry total. TheNortheastern (229) and Western US (142) lead on TMT, reflectingthese subregion’s strong artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure andtech development ecosystems. Pharma, medical & biotech (PMB) follows with 544 stories, particularly inthe Northeast (189) and Southern US (134), consistent with life scienceshubs like Boston and the ‘Research Triangle’ in North Carolina. Biotechvaluations remain attractive and large-cap pharma companies continueto target late-stage assets that are close to commercialization to bolsterpipelines ahead of looming patent expirations. After TMT and PMB,industrials & chemicals (I&C) ranks a distant third (302 stories), drivenby reshoring, supply-chain localization, and sustainability themes thatcontinue to motivate strategic consolidation. Brand equity Tax clarity Brazil posted 174 ‘for sale’ stories – more than any other non-USmarket. The country is pushing on with long-awaited structural reforms,most notably a landmark tax overhaul passed in late 2023 that is now(gradually) being implemented. The simplified system should reducefriction across long supply chains, especially in industrials and consumergoods, improving Brazil’s competitiveness and unlocking the country’sM&A potential. Consumer companies generated 280 ‘for sale’ stories, led by theNortheast and Western US, aligning with a modest rebound in consumerconfidence following. Demand remains resilient in segments like health& wellness, premium personal care, and convenience food, which areseen as defensive bets with strong pricing power and durable growth. Meanwhile, PE buyers are eyeing brand revitalization plays, targetingmature companies with strong name recognition but operationalshortcomings. Firms are betting they can unlock value throughmodernized marketing and tighter execution, putting rusty retailersand consumer businesses back on track. Elsewhere, Latin America & the Caribbean logged 128 stories, withactivity strongest in TMT (31), consumer (26), and energy, mining& utilities (EMU, 23). In Argentina, President Javier Milei’s sweepingderegulation drive is being watched closely by global investors. Whilepast administrations deterred foreign capital through protectionismand currency controls, Milei’s pivot toward privatization, labor reform,and pro-business policy marks a notable shift. Though uncertaintyremains, the new trajectory is raising hopes of a more stable and openinvestment climate. In business services (222 stories), the Northeast again leads the way,followed by notable activity in the Southern and Western US. Buyers arecircling businesses that solve workforce headaches efficiently, often intech-enabled or recurring-revenue models that lend themselves toPE roll-ups. Pro-business, structural reformsare aboon for American business sentiment Summary: Bigger, butnot busier, in today’stwo-track M&A market Last year was