全球半导体行业研究：汽车半导体市场研究：政策强力赋能

Automotive Semiconductor Tracker: Policyin overdrive Industry Overview 31 March 2025 Shift in regional EV demand away from ChinaThe 1stedition of Auto Semi tracker for 2025 saw a shift in regional demand for EVs away from China towards Europe and the US. This shift was driven predominately byBEVs, whereas PHEVs saw weaker demand globally in January (+24% YoY vs +51% inDec). Whilst the Jan data is not reflective of recent policy changes, e.g. EU CO2regulations and 25% tariffs on US imports, we believe S&P have already baked in tariffimplications into forecasts, in which they see flat LVP unit growth (89.5m) and +20%xEV unit growth YoY in 25E (21.3m). We reiterate our Neutral onSTMdue to loss ofmarket share in general-purpose MCUs and elevated channel inventories. EquityGlobalSemiconductors Didier Scemama>>Research AnalystMLI (UK)+44 20 7995 6751didier.scemama@bofa.com Vivek AryaResearch AnalystBofASvivek.arya@bofa.com EV demand to accelerate in Europe Horst Schneider>>Research AnalystBofA Europe (Frankfurt)horst.schneider@bofa.com In January, LVP declined-4% YoY, with declines across Europe (-11%) and NA (-9%) lessthan offset by growth in China (+2% YoY). January saw acceleration in BEV demand inEurope (+36% YoY vs +3% in Dec) and the US (+24% YoY vs +12% in Dec) vs aslowdown in China (+10% YoY vs +15% in Dec). PHEV demand remains stable in the US(-3% YoY) and Europe (+4% YoY) and appears to be slowing in China (Jan +30% YoY vs+81% yoy in’24). China (65% of global xEV demand) is forecasted to growth strongly in25E (+18% yoy) and xEV demand is expected to re-accelerate in Europe (+25% yoy) andthe US (+15% yoy). Mikio Hirakawa>>Research AnalystBofAS Japanmikio.hirakawa@bofa.com Amelia Banks>>Research AnalystMLI (UK)amelia.banks@bofa.com Oliver Wong>>Research AnalystMLI (UK)oliver.wong2@bofa.com PHEVs now forecast to grow in Europe in 26/27EOur BofA Autos team forecast +20% YoY growth in xEV sales in 25E, with stronger growth in PHEVs (+25% YoY) than BEVs (+17% YoY). Significant revisions were made toPHEV sales in Europe (+21% YoY in 25E vs +8% prior); now seeing +4%/+2% growth in26/27E vsa -2% decline prior. China saw -5% and -1% cuts to both PHEV and BEV sales,respectively. Current S&P forecasts for LVP see flat growth YoY globally in 25E, withEurope and NA declining -3% YoY offsetting +2% YoY growth for China. LVP revisionsthis month were limited, with North America revised down c1% for 25-27E. Glossary: LVP: Light vehicle productionLVS: Light vehicle salesxEV/EV: Electric vehicleBEV: Battery electric vehiclePHEV: Plug-in hybrid electric vehicleMCU: Microcontroller unitSAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rateSTM: STMicroelectronicsEU: European UnionCo2: Carbon dioxideTSLA: TeslaTXN: Texas InstrumentsVW: VolkswagenMBG: Mercedes BenzGP MCU: General-purpose MCUs US tariffs– a manageable risk Last week, we published aDiversified Semis Update, in which we sawSTMin the top-3diversified vendors, alongsideTXNin‘24.STMremained no1 in general-purpose MCUs,though lost 770bps of market share. Following the US administration’s implementationof 25% tariffs on auto imports into the US, we would expect STM to suffer from tariffson key clients (VW, Hyundai and MBG are the top-3 largest importers of autos into US),we see some offsets forSTM(TSLA’sproduction in US). Ultimately c7-8% of global carproduction is exposed to US tariffs, a manageable risk. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 17 to 20. Analyst Certification on page 16. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 15.12811257 January round up: EVs decelerate in China Exhibit2: STM is gaining share in automotive application-specificanalog chipsChange in market share of Automotive application-specific Analog Exhibit1: IFX is No1 vendor of Automotive MCUs, 33% share vs 30% in‘23Market share split of Automotive MCUs in 2024 PHEV and BEV penetration rate of total xEV sales. Global: xEVs see a sharp drop MoM Source:BofA Global Research, LMC Source:BofA Global Research, S&P Europe: BEVs soaring high Europe Light Vehicle Production (Unit millions). US: LVP continues to decline YoY US Light Vehicle Production (Unit millions). China: PHEVs losing strength China Light Vehicle Production (Unit millions). China PHEV Sales (Unit thousands). LV and EV forecasts for 2025/26/27 Light Vehicle production and sales estimatesS&P made limited revisions to 2025E LVS,