埃塞俄比亚的税收制度：结构、绩效和基准

Ethiopia’s tax system plays a critical role in shaping its fiscal sustainability and economic development trajectory. Despite being one of the fastest-growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Ethiopia’s tax-to-GDP ratio remains among the lowest in the region, highlighting persistent revenue mobilization challenges. The paper reviews Ethiopia’s tax system, highlighting its persistently low tax-to-GDP ratio despite sustained economic growth. It benchmarks Ethiopia’s revenue performance against regional and structural peers, examines the structure and efficiency of major tax categories, and analyzes revenue responsiveness to the business cycle. Using stochastic frontier analysis, it estimates the country’s tax potential and identifies significant gaps.

Motivation and Background: Ethiopia has sustained one of the highest growth rates in SSA, yet its tax revenue mobilization remains among the weakest in the region. Ethiopia’s tax-to-GDP ratio is among the lowest in SSA, ranking below the 10th percentile of the regional distribution. The divergence between Ethiopia’s economic growth and its weak tax performance highlights fundamental weaknesses in revenue mobilization, including a narrow tax base, high levels of informality, and inefficiencies in tax administration.

Tax Revenue Structure and Trends: Ethiopia's government revenue is heavily dependent on tax collection, with grants and non-tax revenues playing a minimal role. Tax revenue sources are relatively balanced across different tax categories, though direct taxes currently play the dominant role. Taxes on international trade and transactions have seen a sharp and sustained decline, mirroring Ethiopia’s shrinking trade openness rather than changes in tax policy or enforcement efficiency.

Tax Policy and Revenue Performance: Ethiopia’s tax system comprises three major revenue sources—personal income tax (PIT), corporate income tax (CIT), and value-added tax (VAT)—with notable gaps in efficiency and collection. Despite having statutory tax rates comparable to regional peers, Ethiopia’s revenue mobilization from these taxes remains among the lowest in SSA. The analysis of PIT, CIT, and VAT highlights structural inefficiencies, compliance challenges, and policy gaps that constrain tax revenue performance. PIT and CIT contributions are low by regional standards, and weaknesses in consumption tax collection further constrain revenue potential.

Tax Revenue Elasticities and the Business Cycle: Ethiopia’s output gap turned positive in 2023 after years of economic disruptions, with implications for tax revenue performance. Personal and corporate income tax revenues exhibit weak responsiveness to economic fluctuations, diverging from other country groups. Consumption taxes exhibit a positive correlation with the business cycle, yet Ethiopia’s collections on goods and services remain below potential. International trade-related tax revenues are the most responsive to economic activity but have declined due to Ethiopia’s shrinking trade openness.

Revenue Potential and Tax Gaps: Ethiopia’s tax revenue collections remain well below their estimated potential, highlighting scope for improving revenue mobilization. Structural economic factors, including Ethiopia’s large agricultural sector and low trade openness, constrain its tax revenue potential. Institutional quality and governance effectiveness play a critical role in tax mobilization, with Ethiopia performing above LIC averages but below emerging and advanced economies. Econometric estimates suggest that Ethiopia’s tax revenue potential exceeds current collections by a substantial margin. Meeting the minimum tax-to-GDP threshold is essential for sustainable growth. Tax effort remains low and broadly aligned with regional peers, highlighting substantial untapped revenue potential in both Sub-Saharan Africa and low-income countries.

Policy Actions and Revenue Mobilization Under the ECF-Supported Program: The Ethiopian authorities are implementing ambitious reforms to address macroeconomic imbalances and enhance revenue mobilization. The Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda (HGER), supported by the IMF Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program, aims to strengthen fiscal sustainability and promote economic stability. A key pillar of the fiscal strategy is the National Medium-Term Revenue Strategy (NMTRS), which provides a comprehensive framework for improving tax policy and administration. Recent tax policy measures are designed to broaden the tax base and enhance compliance. Ethiopia has made significant progress in tax administration, closing gaps with peer countries, though further improvements are needed to align with international best practices. Despite ongoing reforms, Ethiopia’s revenue projections indicate a gradual recovery but remain below the tax-to-GDP threshold for sustainable development.

Conclusion: Ethiopia’s tax revenue performance remains below its potential, with the tax-to-GDP ratio among the lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa. A closer comparison with peer countries highlights key areas for improvement. The authorities are implementing a revenue-led strategy guided by the NMTRS, aiming to restore long-term fiscal stability. Addressing these challenges will require a combination of tax policy refinements and strengthened administration. Broadening the tax base, formalizing the economy, improving compliance, and enhancing governance will be essential to aligning Ethiopia’s revenue performance with its economic potential.