生猪周报：市场预期向好 盘面偏强运行

另存为PDF分享生猪周报| 2025-07-28作者：史香迎生猪分析师期货从业资格：F03086321交易咨询资格：Z0019355邮箱地址：shixy@hrrdqh.com联系方式：0371-69106756 一、期货端——主力合约基差情况生猪主力合约（LH2509）本周震荡偏强。类别指标名称2025-07-24基准地出栏价(元/公斤)河南-期货合约收盘价(元/吨)01合约1455003合约1373005合约1421007合约1401009合约1436511合约14210主力合约基差(元/吨)基准地基差- 一、期货端——各合约价格变化情况10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,00030,0002021-01-082021-05-072021-08-242021-12-172022-04-142022-08-04远月合约价格偏强运行。 一、期货端——月间价差变化远月预期提升，9-11合约反套走势明显。01-03合约价差(元/吨)-3,000-2,500-2,000-1,500-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,00003-2704-2906-0307-0508-0609-0710-1711-1812-2001-222022-20232023-20242024-20252025-2026820820-1,600-1,400-1,200-1,000-800-600-400-20020040060007-09合约价差(元/吨)-3,000-2,500-2,000-1,500-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,00010-0811-0812-0901-1002-1203-1404-1505-1906-1907-212022-20232023-20242024-2025-355-355-1,500-1,200-900-600-3003006009001,2001,5001,8002,1002,400 一、期货端——月间价差变化远月预期向好，9-01合约反套走势明显。01-05合约价差(元/吨)-3,000-2,000-1,00001,0002,0003,0004,0005,00005-2706-1907-1208-0408-2709-2010-2011-1212-0512-282022202320242025340340-4,000-3,500-3,000-2,500-2,000-1,500-1,000-5005001,0001,5002,00007-11合约价差(元/吨)-3,500-3,000-2,500-2,000-1,500-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,00011-2612-2201-1802-1403-1104-0705-0606-0106-2707-22021-20222022-20232023-20242024-2025-200-200-2,000-1,500-1,000-5005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000 二、现货端——猪价与宰量本周宰量稳中有增，猪价继续下跌。全国生猪出栏价(元/公斤)91215182124273033363901-0101-2702-2203-1904-1405-1006-0507-0107-2708-2209-172021202220232024202514.2214.22 二、现货端——区域价差地区价差相对合理。-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.901-01广东-河南毛猪价差(元/公斤)-2-1.5-1-0.500.511.522.533.501-0102-0903-1904-2706-0507-1408-2209-3011-0812-1720222023202420251.341.34-4-3.5-3-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.500.5101-01辽宁-河南毛猪价差(元/公斤)-2.4-2.1-1.8-1.5-1.2-0.9-0.6-0.300.30.60.91.201-0102-0903-1904-2706-0507-1408-2209-3011-0812-172022202320242025-0.16-0.16 二、现货端——肥标价差肥标价差整体震荡调整，关注接下来肥标差能否季节性走强，若能则会削弱市场降重意愿甚至促使市场增重。150KG-标猪价差(元/斤)-0.2-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.801-0202-0203-0603-3104-2805-2506-2007-1708-1720222023202420250.090.09200KG-标猪价差(元/斤)-0.4-0.200.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.8201-0202-0203-0603-3104-2805-2506-2007-1708-1720222023202420250.510.51 09-2110-2712-01175KG-标猪价差(元/斤)-0.6-0.4-0.200.20.40.60.811.201-0202-0203-0603-3104-2805-25202209-2110-2712-01 二、现货端——鲜销与毛白价差终端消费同比偏稳定。样本屠企猪肉鲜销率(%)8586878889909192939401-0301-2702-2103-1704-1105-0505-3006-2307-1808-16202220232024202587.8587.85毛白比价1.261.271.281.291.31.311.321.331.341.351.361.371.381.3901-0202-0203-0303-2804-2405-1906-1307-1008-0420222023202420251.331.33 二、现货端——相关产品比价与鲜冻价差猪肉性价比一般。2号肉鲜冻价差走强，若继续走强或减少鲜品对冻品的替代。0.220.240.260.280.30.320.340.360.380.40.420.440.460.4801-02猪肉/蔬菜33.544.555.566.577.588.501-0202-0803-1604-2306-0207-0908-1509-2211-0412-1120222023202420254.7294.729猪肉/鸡肉0.911.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.901-0202-0803-1604-2306-0207-0908-1509-2211-0412-1120222023202420251.1991.199-101234567801-02 猪肉/牛肉02-0903-1804-2606-06202220232号肉鲜冻价差(元/公斤)02-1303-2004-2405-2620222023 二、现货端——养殖利润自繁自养利润仍然可观，外购育肥处于微亏状态。养殖利润（元/头）-600-400-20002004006008001,0001,2001,4002022-04-072022-08-112022-12-152023-05-042023-09-07自繁自养 二、现货端——出栏体重出栏体重本周继续下降，关注体重能否降到去年同期水平附近。生猪出栏体重(公斤)11912012112212312412512612712812913001-0201-2502-2203-1404-0604-2705-1806-0806-2907-2008-17202320242025127.6127.6 09-19 三、产能端——能繁母猪存栏量据农业部数据显示，6月末全国能繁母猪存栏量4043万头，环比+0.1%，同比+0.1%。涌益咨询数据显示，6月其样本1能繁母猪环比+0.22%，上月+0.92%，产能继续增加；My steel数据显示，6月其样本规模企业能繁母猪环比+0.29%，上月+0.33%.钢联规模场能繁母猪存栏量4,500,0004,550,0004,600,0004,650,0004,700,0004,750,0004,800,0004,850,0004,900,0004,950,0005,000,0005,050,0005,100,0005,150,0002022-01-312022-08-312023-03-312023-10-312024-05-31存栏量(头)农业部能繁母猪存栏量及环比3,9504,0004,0504,1004,1504,2004,2504,3004,3504,4002022-01-312022-08-312023-03-312023-10-312024-05-31农业部能繁母猪存栏量(万头)环比(%) 数据来源：涌益咨询、My steel、农业部、融达期货2024-12-31-2.1-1.8-1.5-1.2-0.9-0.6-0.300.30.60.91.21.51.82.12024-12-31涌益咨询能繁母猪存栏变化-14-12-10-8-6-4-20246810122022-01-312022-08-312023-03-312023-10-312024-05-312024-12-31环比(%)同比(%) 三、产能端——母猪淘汰情况本周淘汰母猪价格偏弱运行。淘汰母猪宰杀量6月环比增加，但仍处低位。样本企业淘汰母猪均价(元/公斤)78910111213141516171819202101-0301-3102-2803-2804-2505-2306-2007-1808-1909-27202220232024202510.2910.29淘汰母猪价/毛猪价0.540.570.60.630.660.690.720.750.780.810.8401-0202-0103-0203-3004-2705-2506-2207-2008-2409-2920222023202420250.7370.737 11-0312-0911-0712-14 三、产能端——母猪生产效率与新生健仔数6月新生健仔数环比-1.26%（前值+2.91%），对应到今年12月出栏生猪量止增转跌（按育肥期6个月计算）。母猪生产效率99.29.49.69.81010.210.410.610.81111.211.42020-04-302021-01-312021-10-312022-07-312023-04-30五省平均窝均健仔数(头)五省平均产房存活率(%,右轴) 85.58686.58787.58888.58989.59090.59191.5922024-01-312024-10-31 三、产能端——母猪、仔猪补栏积极性本周15Kg仔猪价格价格偏稳运行，50Kg二元母猪价格偏稳运行。50Kg二元母猪价格(元/头)1,5201,5401,5601,5801,6001,6201,6401,6601,6801,70001-0202-0102-2903-2304-1805-1106-0506-2707-202023202420251628162815Kg仔猪价格(元/头)20025030035040045050055060065070075080085001-0202-0102-2903-2304-1805-1106-0506-2707-20202320242025540540 08-2209-2608-2209-26 四、屠宰端——屠宰量与屠宰利润等屠宰量环比继续增加，农业部数据显示，6月定点企业屠宰量3006万头，环比-6.5%，同比+23.7%。冻品方面，市场将逐渐进入去库阶段，对猪价的影响由利多转为中性偏空。定点屠宰企业屠宰量(万头)1,5001,8002,1002,4002,7003,0003,3003,600