热轧卷板市场周报：市场预期向好，热卷期价偏强运行

市场预期向好，热卷期价偏强运行「2023.03.10」作者：许方莉期货投资咨询证号：Z0017638热轧卷板市场周报联系电话：0595-36208239关注我们获取 更 多 资 讯瑞达期货研究院业务咨询添加客服 目录1、周度要点小结2、期现市场3、产业情况 3来源：瑞达期货研究院「周度要点小结」本周热卷期价延续震荡走高。终端需求继续回暖，厂内库存与社会库存再度双降。近期利好释放较多，只是商家恐高心理有所显现，部分商户选择提前降库。后市展望：供应端，热卷周度产量由增转降，产能利用率回调至77%附近，但已高于去年同期水平；需求端，热卷库存总量继续下滑，在政策利好的加持下，新项目开工节奏加快，提振做多信心。操作上建议，HC2305合约维持震荡偏多交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 4「期现市场情况」本周期货价格震荡偏强本周，HC2305合约震荡上行。本周，HC2305合约强于HC2310合约，10日价差为91元/吨，周环比+20元/吨。图1、热轧卷板主力合约收盘及持仓量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图2、热轧卷板跨期套利来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院010000020000030000040000050000060000070000080000090000010000003300350037003900410043004500470049002022-06-012022-06-102022-06-202022-06-282022-07-062022-07-142022-07-222022-08-012022-08-092022-08-172022-08-252022-09-022022-09-132022-09-212022-09-292022-10-142022-10-242022-11-012022-11-092022-11-172022-11-252022-12-052022-12-132022-12-212022-12-292023-01-092023-01-172023-02-012023-02-092023-02-172023-02-272023-03-07HC2305合约收盘价与持仓量持仓量oi收盘价close-300-200-10001002003002021-11-012021-11-192021-12-092021-12-292022-01-192022-02-152022-03-072022-03-252022-04-182022-05-112022-05-312022-06-212022-07-112022-07-292022-08-182022-09-072022-09-282022-10-252022-11-142022-12-022022-12-222023-01-122023-02-082023-02-28HC2305-HC2310合约价差 5「期现市场情况」本周上期所热卷仓单增加，前20名持仓净空增加3月10日，上海期货交易所热卷仓单量为128755吨，周环比+40919吨。3月10日，热卷期货合约前二十名净持仓为净54518张，较上一周增加4537张。图3、上期所热轧卷板仓单日报来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图4、热轧卷板期货合约前二十名净持仓来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0500001000001500002000002500003000002020-01-022020-02-122020-03-162020-04-172020-05-252020-06-292020-07-302020-09-012020-10-122020-11-122020-12-152021-01-182021-02-252021-03-302021-05-062021-06-082021-07-122021-08-122021-09-142021-10-262021-11-262021-12-292022-02-082022-03-112022-04-152022-05-232022-06-242022-07-272022-08-292022-09-302022-11-092022-12-122023-01-132023-02-22库存期货:热轧卷板（吨）-140000-120000-100000-80000-60000-40000-20000020000400004000004500005000005500006000006500007000007500008000008500002022-01-042022-01-202022-02-142022-03-022022-03-182022-04-072022-04-252022-05-162022-06-012022-06-202022-07-062022-07-222022-08-092022-08-252022-09-132022-09-292022-10-242022-11-092022-11-252022-12-132022-12-292023-01-172023-02-092023-02-27热卷期货合约前20名净持仓净持仓（右）多头持仓空单持仓 6「期现市场情况」本周现货价格上调3月10日，上海热轧卷板5.75mm Q235现货报价为4400元/吨，周环比+60元/吨；全国均价为4447元/吨，周环比+56元/吨。本周，热卷现货价格强于期货价格，10日基差为4元/吨，周环比+35元/吨。图5、全国各地区热轧卷板现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图6、热轧卷板主力合约期现基差来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院350037003900410043004500470049005100530055002022-01-042022-01-132022-01-242022-02-072022-02-162022-02-252022-03-082022-03-172022-03-282022-04-072022-04-182022-04-262022-05-092022-05-182022-05-272022-06-082022-06-172022-06-282022-07-072022-07-182022-07-272022-08-052022-08-162022-08-252022-09-052022-09-152022-09-262022-10-102022-10-192022-10-282022-11-082022-11-172022-11-282022-12-072022-12-162022-12-272023-01-062023-01-172023-01-312023-02-092023-02-202023-03-01全国各地区热卷现货报价价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:上海元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:杭州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:武汉元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:广州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:天津元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:全国元/吨-200020040060080010003000350040004500500055006000650070002021-01-042021-02-032021-03-122021-04-142021-05-192021-06-212021-07-212021-08-202021-09-232021-11-012021-12-012021-12-312022-02-092022-03-112022-04-142022-05-192022-06-212022-07-212022-08-222022-09-222022-10-312022-11-302022-12-302023-02-082023-03-10热卷5月合约期现基差5月基差期货收盘价(5月交割连续):热轧卷板现货 7「上游市场情况」本周炉料铁矿石现货上调，焦炭现货价格持平3月10日，青岛港61%澳洲麦克粉矿报1000元/干吨，周环比+12元/干吨。3月10日，天津港一级冶金焦现货报价2910元/吨，周环比+0元/吨。图7、铁矿石现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图8、焦炭现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院20002500300035004000450050002021-01-042021-02-022021-03-092021-04-082021-05-122021-06-102021-07-122021-08-102021-09-082021-10-182021-11-162021-12-152022-01-142022-02-172022-03-182022-04-202022-05-232022-06-222022-07-212022-08-192022-09-202022-10-262022-11-242022-12-232023-01-292023-02-27天津港一级冶金焦65851051251451651852052252454006008001000120014001600180020002021-01-042021-02-012021-03-082021-04-062021-05-072021-06-042021-07-052021-08-022021-08-302021-09-292021-11-032021-12-012021-12-292022-01-272022-03-032022-03-312022-05-052022-06-022022-07-012022-07-292022-08-262022-09-262022-10-312022-11-282022-12-262023-01-312023-02-28青岛港铁矿石现货价格麦克粉(61%)普氏（62%Fe）(右)元/干吨美元/吨 8「上游市场情况」本周澳巴铁矿石发运总量增加据Mysteel统计，本期澳大利亚、巴西铁矿石发运总量为2461.3万吨，环比增加68.4万吨。2月27日-3月5日中国47港到港总量2269.7万吨，环比增加353.5万吨；中国45港到港总量2111.3万吨，环比增加265.0万吨；北方六港到港总量为904.6万吨，环比增加18.8万吨。图9、澳巴铁矿石发运总量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图10、铁矿石到港量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院-800-600-400-2000200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600280030002019-01-062019-02-242019-04-142019-06-022019-07-212019-09-082019-10-272019-12-152020-02-022020-03-222020-05-102020-06-282020-08-162020-10-042020-11-222021-01-102021-02-282021-04-182021-06-062021-07-252021-09-122021-10-312021-12-192022-02-062022-03-272022-05-152022-07-032022-08-212022-10-092022-11-272023-01-15澳巴铁矿石发货总量增减澳巴总量-1000-800-600-400-20002004006008001500170019002100230025002700290031002021/1/32021/1/312021/2/282021/3/282021/4/252021/5/232021/6/202021/7/252021/8/222021/9/222021/10/182021/11/152021/12/132022/1/102022/2/72022/3/72022/4/62022/5/