资金宽松要结束了？

请阅读最后一页的重要声明！证券研究报告分析师孙彬彬SAC证书编号：S0160525020001sunbb@ctsec.com分析师隋修平SAC证书编号：S0160525020003suixp@ctsec.com分析师汪梦涵SAC证书编号：S0160525030003wangmh01@ctsec.com分析师刘金金SAC证书编号：S0160524050001liujj01@ctsec.com相关报告1.《高频｜期现共振还是回归现实？》2025-07-262.《130元+，转债狂想曲》3.《利率|“看商品做债”的逻辑再探讨》2025-07-23 25 核心观点 2025-07- 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准内容目录1三季度资金波动放大是常态......................................................................................52周度资金存单跟踪和关键点提示................................................................................93央行：收短放长，整体净投放流动性.........................................................................114政府债：净缴款抬升至2876亿元............................................................................115票据：整体下行，存在月末冲量现象.........................................................................136汇率：统计期升值，人民币即期汇率录得7.17............................................................147市场资金供需：国有行融出中枢抬升，但节奏差..........................................................158CD：机构情绪降温，募集成功率下降.......................................................................198.1一级发行市场：国有行存单净融资转负，下周到期量下降..........................................198.2二级交易市场：交易活跃度上抬，非银减持力量更强................................................219风险提示.............................................................................................................22图表目录图1：逆回购操作情况...............................................................................................6图2：本周资金体感情况............................................................................................6图3：人民币兑美元汇率稳健.....................................................................................6图4：7月底票据利率下行明显...................................................................................6图5：三季度资金波动大,且类比924权益行情有扰动.....................................................7图6：权益行情往往对非银资金需求有影响...................................................................7图7：存单募集成功率回落........................................................................................8图8：二级买盘情况..................................................................................................8图9：一周资金和存单关键点跟踪...............................................................................9图10：下周资金扰动因素.......................................................................................10图11：央行周度操作和资金价格走势........................................................................11图12：逆回购存量仍旧高于季节性...........................................................................11图13：统计期短期资金到期情况..............................................................................11图14：统计期或有中长期资金到期情况.....................................................................11 2 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准3图15：政府债净融资和缴款情况..............................................................................12图16：政府债净融资进度.......................................................................................12图17：结构视角政府债净融资量和进度情况...............................................................12图18：国债净融资进度..........................................................................................13图19：地方政府债净融资进度.................................................................................13图20：政府债发行和缴款日历.................................................................................13图21：票据绝对利率走势.......................................................................................14图22：票据相对利率走势.......................................................................................14图23：即期汇率相对中间价贬值情况........................................................................14图24：USDCNY、USDCNH掉期点.......................................................................14图25：USDCNY和中间价，跌停价之间关系.............................................................15图26：逆周期因子情况..........................................................................................15图27：资金供需情况.............................................................................................15图28：银行体系资金融出情况.................................................................................15图29：国有行资金融出情况....................................................................................16图30：股份行资金融出情况....................................................................................16图31：货基资金融出情况.......................................................................................16图32：理财资金融出情况.......................................................................................16图33：（基金+保险+券商）净融入情况.......................................................................17图34：非银（除货基和理财）净融入........................................................................17图35：全市场杠杆情况..........................................................................................17图36：银行间杠杆季节性图....................................................................................17图37：商业银行杠杆季节性图.................................................................................18图38：广义基金杠杆季节性图..................................................