追求生产力：全球经济的下一个50万亿美元

Table of ContentsExecutive SummaryRedefining Productivity for Sustainable,Socially Responsible GrowthWhy Productivity MattersIntroducing the Strategy&Productivity Potential IndexComponents of the Productivity Potential Index1. Labor and Human capital2. Physical Capital3. Innovation and Intangible Capital4. Natural Capital5. Social Capital6. InstitutionsFive Key Insights from the Strategy&Productivity Potential IndexEconomic Gains From Greater ProductivityPolicyImplicationsReferencesAbout Strategy&About the Ideation CenterEndnotesContactsAbout the Authors 0103050712141618202222232527313434363839 The Strategy& Productivity Potential Index consistsof 19 variables grouped into six pillars. To theinputs of labor and human capital, physical capital,and innovation and intangible capital that makeup traditional measures of total factor productivity(TFP), we add pillars for social capital, naturalcapital, and institutions. About one-quarter of theIndex is based on these additional pillars, while theremaining three-quarters cover the more traditionalpillars. We have initially calculated the productivityperformance of 25 countries using thisnew methodology.The Index is modern not only in its conception butalso in its calculations. With the help of a machinelearning process, we estimated country-specificpotential productivity using all the available data,across all countries and variables. This enabled usto identify those pillars that individual countrieswould specifically need to focus on if they wantedto boost their own productivity growth. An onlinesimulator published with this report allows usersto compare country performance across the keypillars and variables that constitute the Index andto assess the implications for productivity growthof improving critical productivity factors. The Indexcan thus help leaders identify gaps in their country’sproductivity performance and develop practical andtargeted interventions to address those gaps.A primary innovation of the Productivity PotentialIndex (PPI) is to adopt a “multiple capitals”approach to defining, modeling, and measuringproductivity. By encompassing human, physical,natural, social, institutional, and intangible capital,it draws on a wide range of economic researchand offers insights across the full spectrum ofproductivity policy. By design, the PPI is alsoinherently forward looking. Although mainstreamproductivity analysis describes only the past—inputsused and outputs generated in the last quarter orlast year—decision-makers today need economicindicators that can shape the future. The PPI offersinsights into the productivity that economies couldpotentiallyachieve, given their capital endowments. If GCC Countries ImproveOnly Their WeakestProductivity Determinant, ItCan Accelerate the Region’sGDP Growth Over the NextDecade From 3.8% to 5.4%.This Acceleration Will CreateMore Than USD 2.5 TrillionDollars in Additional GDP1.Executive SummaryProductivity is a catalyst of economic growth, and it underlies thedevelopment potential of nations. Boosting productivity createsemployment, encourages innovation, and supports the sustainableand equitable development of societies. However, traditional measuresof productivity do not include dimensions that we believe are criticalfor our age, such as environmental impact, health, innovation,and the performance of institutions. This report puts forward a newway of measuring productivity—and thus growth—that is not onlyrobust but also green, equitable, and socially responsible. Redefining Productivityfor Sustainable, SociallyResponsible GrowthTraditional measures of productivity relied onby economists and policymakers to explain acountry’s economic performance include totalfactor productivity (TFP) and labor productivity.TFP focuses on the efficiency with whichinputs (such as labor and capital) are used inthe production process to generate output.Labor productivity is measured as the averageoutput per hour worked (see “Why productivitymatters” on page 05).However, these traditional measures do notconsider negative outputs such as air pollutionor the erosion of trust and weakening of equitythat a production process may generate. Thus,traditional productivity statistics would beunable to differentiate between two factories,one of which generated twice as much pollutionas the other, if they were using the same inputsand generating the same output.Excluding such production externalities—whichcould be positive or negative—from productivitycalculations means that traditional productivitydata has some significant shortcomings:•It does not distinguish betweengrowth that creates high environmentalimpact and growth that creates lowenvironmental impact.•It ignores many of the capital assetsthat determine an economy’s productivecapacity, such as health, social capital,and environmental factors including wateruse and biodiversity.•It fails to incorporate the quality ofinstitutions in a country.•It provides only a retroactive view ofproduct