太空：全球经济增长的1.8万亿美元机遇

I N S I G H TR E P O R TA P R I L2 0 2 4 Contents Foreword3 Executive summary4 Introduction: Moving towards space ubiquity6 2 How key factors determine the trajectory of the space economy22 3 How space can change the world26 Conclusion: Progressing to the North Star31 Contributors49 Endnotes51 Disclaimer This document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated andendorsed by the World Economic Forumbut whose results do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the World EconomicForum, nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders. © 2024 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopyingand recording, or by any informationstorage and retrieval system. Foreword Jeremy JurgensManaging Director,World Economic Forum Ryan BrukardtSenior Partner,McKinsey & Company The space industry is approaching the nextfrontier, with each week bringing news of a majorspace development from somewhere in the world.From successful tests of new rocket systems topioneering satellite launches and complex roboticmissions to the Moon and beyond, human activityin space is accelerating at an unprecedentedpace. We’re on the cusp of the super-heavy rocketera, with an ever-increasing number of industryplayers racing to revolutionize our access to space.Together, these efforts have progressively openedup the world of improved space data and servicesto the benefit of everyone. We estimate that theglobal space economy will be worth $1.8 trillion by2035, up from $630 billion in 2023. set of stakeholders than ever before – including inindustries as varied as food and beverage; retail,consumer goods and lifestyle; supply chain andtransportation; and even climate disaster mitigation. This report by the World Economic Forum, inknowledge partnership with McKinsey & Company,shines a light on the key developments that willshape space and its adjacent industries through to2035. We have brought together a community ofleaders and experts from across space and othersectors to provide the most detailed picture yet ofnot only the space economy’s future trajectory, butalso of how space will impact many other sectors –often in indirect ways – through ever improving andexpanding technological capabilities. Yet while mega rocket launches and recordspaceflights are the headlines that capture thepublic’s imagination, routine rocket launches andsatellite data services are, in fact, the product ofdecades of behind-the-scenes innovation. And theyare delivering greater benefits to a more diverse We hope that this publication will provide invaluableinsights for those in the space community andadjacent industries, and helpful guidance on howincumbents and new entrants alike can embrace theopportunities offered by reaching this next frontier. Executive summary The space economy is going from nicheto ubiquitous, creating value for multipleindustries and solutions to many of theworld’s most pressing challenges. The space economy is forecast to soar to $1.8trillion by 2035 in an increasingly connected andmobile world, impacting and creating value fornearly all industries on Earth and providing solutionsto many of the world’s greatest challenges. traditional players such as ride-hailing apps, whichwould never have reached the global scale theyhave without satellite-based technology connectingdrivers and riders and providing navigation services. Space will become more about connectingpeople and goods But it’s about more than rocket science, with spaceincreasingly playing a role in everything from theweather forecast you look at it the morning, to thedinner that gets delivered to your door, and the callyou make from your smart watch. Indeed, industrieslike supply chain and transportation are only goingto become more dependent on satellite and otherspace technologies. Five industries – supply chain and transportation;food and beverage; state-sponsored defence;retail, consumer goods and lifestyle; and digitalcommunications – will generate more than 60%of the increase in the space economy by 2035. Inaddition, nine other industries will see space-relatedrevenues reach several billion dollars – creatingopportunities for traditional and non-traditionalplayers alike. Over the past year, the World Economic Forumand McKinsey & Company have engaged withmore than 60 thought leaders from the public,private and non-profit sectors, representing morethan 15 industries and most parts of the globe.Using market forecasts, public and private sectorestimates, and insights from a global network ofexperts, the team behind this report has developedoriginal bottom-up estimates for the size of eachcomponent of the space economy – includingcommercial services, infrastructure and support,and end