为子孙后代改造国家韧性体系

The World Governments Summit is a global platform dedicated toshaping the future of governments worldwide. Each year, the Summitsets the agenda for the next generation of governments with a focuson how they can harness innovation and technology to solve universalchallenges facing humanity.The World Governments Summit is a knowledge exchange center atthe intersection of government, futurism, technology, and innovation.It functions as a thought leadership platform and networking hub forpolicymakers, experts and pioneers in human development.The Summit is a gateway to the future as it functions as the stage foranalysis of future trends, concerns, and opportunities facing humanity.It is also an arena to showcase innovations, best practice, and smartsolutions to inspire creativity to tackle these future challenges.To Inspireand EnableThe Next Generationof Governments02World Governments Summit Table of ContentsForewordConclusionIntroductionFirst Principles: Risk, Incident &National ResilienceTopicsSocio-Economic Impact & The Global Value at RiskHigh Performing National Resilience Systems:The Key ThemesInvesting in ResilienceThe Global Benefit of Enhanced National ResilienceTangible ImpactContext: The Evolving Risk LandscapeThe Importance of Coping CapacityInsights for Successful TransformationNational Resilience: Limitations,Ethics, Equity & Trade-offsThe Rise of Systems Thinking Appliedto National ResilienceThe Importance of Coping CapacityGlobal National Risk and Threat ScenariosShifting ParadigmsSection 1Section 2Section 3Section 4Section 5Section 6Section 7Section 8Section 9Section 10 0658081430363846481821505451532225 ForewordIn the last 100 years, instances of disaster and nationalcrisis have increased 50-fold, with their severity andfrequency also rising over time. In a context of urgency,the leaders of today have a duty to foster a culture ofresilience and build the appropriate resilience systemsacross government that will benefit future generations.While governmentpreparedness for crisisvaries world-wide,program spending hastypically followed a‘boom and bust’ cyclewhen disaster strikes. This reactionary approach often resultsin absence of national leadership,unclear resilience arrangements,misalignment across governmententities, lack of scalability in nationalresponse systems, and vulnerablecommunities. Notably, it also leads tosocioeconomic value at risk that couldreach ~$30 trillion (USD equivalent)globally, over the next two decades.To avert such lossesand to limit the risks tocitizens, societies, andeconomies in times ofcrisis, the onus is nowon government leadersto develop enhancednational resiliencesystems, shaped by acollaborative, whole-of-economy, and citizen-centric approach. 07 IntroductionOver the last 50 years, majorcrises and disasters have becomemore frequent and severe,impacting nations significantly.Whether natural or man-made, accidentalor deliberate, disasters in all their formswreak havoc, causing extensive loss of lifeand injury to citizens, damaging propertyand assets, or even eradicating entire townsand communities. In some extreme cases,they can also directly affect gross domesticproduct (GDP) and national economicperformance, with lasting impact that canprove challenging to reverse.Government preparedness varies world-wide, yet across nations, program spendinghas typically followed a ‘boom and bust’cycle in response to major disasters. This ispolitically expedient for leaders seeking tomanage limited financial resources acrossmultiple government priorities and isoften accompanied by rapid investment inmeasures to remediate the critical points offailure identified in post-disaster reviews.However, whilst arguably well intended,this reactive approach is fundamentally08 flawed, often resulting in absence of nationalleadership, unclear resilience arrangements,misalignment across government entities,lack of scalability in national responsesystems, vulnerable communities, andsignificant value at risk (VAR). In immaturenational resilience systems that are oftenshaped by inconsistent or insufficientfunding and reactive fixes to emergencyresponse arrangements, Arthur D. Little (ADL)estimates that ~$30 trillion (USD equivalent)in global VAR could be at stake over the nexttwo decades. This VAR is driven by loss of lifeand damage to assets, critical infrastructure,and essential services that often results fromsevere national disasters.To avert such losses and to limit the wide-ranging risks to societies and economiesin times of crisis, the onus is now ongovernment leaders to change their modusoperandi and focus squarely on buildingnational resilience that is fit for today’s world– and for the generations to come. Adding to the urgency of thesituation is a stark fact: inthe last 100 years, instancesof disaster or national crisishave increased 50-fold.And in the age of climate changeand rapid technology developments(i.e., artificial intelligence, quantumcomputing, and robotics), there