动荡时期的新兴风险管理白皮书

ContentsIntroductionKey TakeawaysProposition 1Effective risk management is fast, forward-looking andidentifies connections.Proposition 2Banks today need an emerging risk manager.Proposition 3(Emerging) risk management is a matter of culture.Proposition 4Emerging risk management requires an active supervisory body –as a driving force, taking a more proactive role in risk management.Summary & outlookContact© 2025 KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft, a corporation under German law and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated withKPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved. 456814182022 1handelszeitung.ch/banking/bundesbank-vorstand-theurer-fur-banken-ziehen-dunkle-wolken-auf-780254, accessed on May 30, 20252https://worlduncertaintyindex.com/data/, accessed on May 30, 2025Figure 1:World Uncertainty Index 1990 to 2025First Gulf WarU.S. recessionand 9/11Iraq war andSARS outbreak60.00050.00040.00030.00020.00010.00001990 Q11994 Q21998 Q3Source: Ahir, H, N Bloom, and D Furceri (2022), “World Uncertainty Index“, NBER Working PaperIntroduction4Emerging Risks© 2025 KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft, a corporation under German law and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated withKPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.We live in a time of major global upheaval. Globalcrises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, geopoliticaltensions like the war in Ukraine, increasing rivalrybetween the superpowers, American tariffs and thecurrent changes in world trade, not to mention theeffects of climate change and disruptive technologies,all present new challenges for countries, companiesand society as a whole. Meanwhile, the risk landscapeis fundamentally changing as a result of structuraltrends such as the digital transformation, the transitionto net zero, the ageing of the population and increasingdependence onglobal supply chains. The WorldUncertainty Index has reached record-high levelsin recent years(see chart).In this rapidly evolving space, we at KPMG decided tosit down with Dr Peter Henning to work out theimplications for risk management. In our white paper,we discuss thechanges that need to be made to European sovereignGlobalfinancial crisis2002 Q4 debt crisisFed tightening andpolitical risks in Greeceand UkraineGeopolitical tensions andcollapse of the Silicon ValleyBank, the Signature Bank andCredit SuisseU.S. fiscal cliff andEuropean sovereigndebt crisisU.S. presidentialelectionTrade tensions betweenUSA and China, and BrexitCOVID-19pandemicU.S. electionand geopoliticalsituationBrexitRussia-Ukrainewar2007 Q12011 Q22015 Q32019 Q42024 Q12Financial institutions face particular challenges giventheir sensitivity to economic fluctuations and pivotalrole in the national economy.Emerging risks, in otherwords new risks that are still imperfectly understoodby reporting entities or that have only just emerged,are becomingincreasingly relevant to overall bankrisk management. They are not visible in conven-tional risk models but have the potential to causemajor harm, and it is often difficult to predict how theywill evolve. As Michael Theurer, a member of theGerman Bundesbank board, said in December 2024,“There are dark clouds ahead for the banks. We live inturbulent times.“1To ensure an appropriate response,it is vital that emerging risks be identified andassessed at an early stage; to do so is thereforeparamount to safeguarding the resilience of financialinstitutions.financial institutions’ risk managementframeworks by reference to four propositions, andwehighlight specific stages in the risk cyclewhere action is requiredto ensure that emergingrisks can be responded to quickly. Our analysis identified three key takeaways for CROs:© 2025 KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft, a corporation under German law and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated withKPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.Be on thelookout.Risk management‘s role willbecome ever more important tocompetitiveness. Risk identifica-tion is fundamental to effectiverisk mitigation strategies. It isessential to “keep one‘s eyespeeled” for potential changes tothe environment in an intention-al and systematic way. Internaland external sources are equallyimportant here and their relevancecan be assessed centrally.Speed iscritical – anemerging riskmanager‘s analysis mustbe comprehensive, fast andforward-looking.For an organisation to be agile, itneeds knowledge of how disrup-tive events will impact its businessand operating model so that it canidentify and initiate risk mitigationmeasures early. Standard pro-cesses should yield to an agile,situation-based approach (“situ-ation room”) coordinated by the“emerging risk manager” who iscapable of performing a compre-hensive analys