坦桑尼亚的商业环境和生产力：来自企业层面数据的证据

IMF Selected Issues PaperAfrican DepartmentThe Business Environment and Productivity in Tanzania:Evidence from Firm Level DataPrepared by Melesse Minale Tashu*Authorized for distribution byCatherine PattilloJune 2025IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted onJune 16,2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No25/164.ABSTRACT:Using the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys (ES) data, this paper sheds light on the relationshipbetween total factor productivity (TFP) and the business environment in Tanzania.Itfinds statisticallysignificant evidence that cumbersome tax administration, limited access to finance, and limited access totransport are associated with lower firm TFP in the manufacturing sector. Whileregressioncoefficients are notstatistically significant,indicators ofregulatory burdenandpower outageare also negativelly associated withTFP. These resultsunderscore the importance of improvingefficiency of tax administration, easingtheregulatory burden, and improvingaccess to finance and reliable infrastructure.RECOMMENDED CITATION:Tashu, Melesse, 2025.TheBusiness Environment and Productivity in Tanzania:Evidence from Firm Level Data. IMF Selected Issues Paper (SIP/2025/098). Washington, D.C.: InternationalD24,L25, O12, O55,R11Total factorproductivity, business environment, firm performance.Mtashu@IMF.ORG Monetary Fund.JEL Classification Numbers:Keywords:Author’s E-Mail Address: The Business Environment andProductivity in TanzaniaEvidence from FirmLevel DataTanzaniaPrepared byMelesse Minale Tashu11The author would like to thankNicolas Blanchard,missionchief for Tanzania, for hisfeedback andguidance. UNITED REPUBLIC OFTANZANIASELECTED ISSUESApproved ByThe AfricanDepartmentPreparedbyMelesse Tashu(AFR)THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY IN TANZANIA— EVIDENCEFROM FIRM LEVEL DATA ___________________________________________________________2A. Context _____________________________________________________________________________2B. Business Environment Indicators in Tanzania________________________________________3C. Empirical Framework________________________________________________________________7D. Estimation results ___________________________________________________________________9E. Concluding Remarks ______________________________________________________________13FIGURES1. Real GDP and TFP Growth___________________________________________________________32. The Business Environment Indicators, 2023 _________________________________________53. Domestic Credit to the Private Sector, 2023_________________________________________64. The Business Environment Indicators and Firm TFP in Tanzania ___________________10TABLE1. Pooled OLS Regression Results between TFP and Obstacles to the BusinessEnvironment _________________________________________________________________________12References __________________________________________________________________________14CONTENTS INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND2THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY INTANZANIA— EVIDENCE FROM FIRM LEVEL DATA1Using the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys (ES) data, this paper sheds light on the relationshipbetween firm-level total factor productivity (TFP) and the business environment in Tanzania. Itfinds statistically significant evidence that cumbersome tax administration, limited access tofinance, and limited access to transport are associated with lower firm TFP in the manufacturingsector. While regression coefficients are not statistically significant, negative associations betweenTFP and the regulatory burden, as well as power outage, are also evident in non-parametricrelationships. On the other hand, there is no clear evidence for the relationship between incidenceof corruption and TFP. These results underscore the importance of stepping up structural reformsto improve the efficiency of tax administration, ease the regulatory burden, and improve access tofinance and reliable infrastructure. In particular, these reform areas should be given priority in thecontext of theVision 2050andBlueprint for Regulatory Reforms IIstrategies.A.Context1.Tanzania enjoyed robust economic growth in the past two decades,driven largely bypublic sector investment. Real GDP grew at an annual average rate of about 6 percent during 2000-23, when the share of gross fixed capital formation to GDP more than doubled from about 19 to 43percent. While the private sector contributed more than half of the growth in total gross fixed capitalformation during 2000-11, the trend reversed during 2011-23 when private sector fixed capitalformation declined by 1 ppts of GDP.2In particular, FDI declined from about 5.7 percent of GDP in2010 to about 2 percent of GDP in 2023.2.However, economic growth has been characterized by declining productivity growthand slowing structural transformation:•Th