石油危机与劳动力市场发展

IMF Working PaperStrategy, Policy and Review DepartmentOil Shocks and Labor Market DevelopmentsPrepared byDiego B. P. Gomes, Lisa Kolovich, andHannah Yi WeiAuthorized for distribution byMonique NewiakJuly2025IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.ABSTRACT:This paper examines how oil shocks shape labor market outcomes across 89 countries from1975 to 2022. Leveraging a high-frequency oilsupply shock series and a rich panel of quarterly labor marketdata, we find that shocks raising oil prices trigger sharp and persistent employment losses, particularly in oil-importing countries, oil-intensive sectors, and among male workers. Delayed butenduring employmentdeclines also emerge in oil-moderate sectors and among female workers, revealing broader labor marketimplications. In contrast, employment gains in oil-exporting countries, and following expansionary supplyshocks, are comparatively modest. Labor force participation responds less consistently, with patternsdisplaying higher variability. These findings highlight how oil shocks transmit unevenly through labor markets,with lasting impacts across countries, sectors, and demographic groups, extending well beyond short-termRECOMMENDED CITATION:Diego B. P. Gomes, Lisa Kolovich, Hannah Yi Wei. 2025. “Oil Shocks and LaborMarket Developments”, IMF Working Paper No. 2025/145J21, Q43,E24labor market; oil supply shocks; employment heterogeneity; high-frequency identification; cross-country labor adjustmentdgomes@imf.org; lkolovich@imf.org; yi.wei@economics.ox.ac.uk macroeconomic fluctuations.JEL Classification Numbers:Keywords: [Type Here]Author’s E-Mail Address: Oil Shocks and Labor MarketDevelopmentsPrepared by Diego B. P. Gomes, Lisa Kolovich, and Hannah Yi Wei1We are grateful to Monique Newiak, Axel Schimmelpfennig, Chie Aoyagi, and Marina Mendes Tavares for their constructivecomments and valuable suggestions. 1 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDContents1.Introduction............................................................................................................................................32.Data and Empirical Strategy.................................................................................................................62.1.Oil Supply News Shock.......................................................................................................................62.2.Panel Data ..........................................................................................................................................72.3.Empirical Strategy...............................................................................................................................73.Results....................................................................................................................................................83.1.Baseline ..............................................................................................................................................83.2.Asymmetric Transmission...................................................................................................................93.3.Oil Importers versus Oil Exporters ....................................................................................................113.4.Sectoral Analysis ..............................................................................................................................133.5.Sex-Disaggregated Results ..............................................................................................................154.Robustness Checks ............................................................................................................................185.Conclusion ...........................................................................................................................................19Annex I. Baseline Sample.................................................................................................................................20Annex II. Robustness Results..........................................................................................................................22References.........................................................................................................................................................24BOXESNo table of figures entries found.FIGURESNo table of figures entries found.TABLESNo table of figures entries found. 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND1. IntroductionOil shocks are among the most consequential global economic disturbances, with effects that extend wellbeyond output and inflation (Kilian, 2009; Barrell and others, 2011). Fluctuations in oil prices can lead todisruptions in labor market dynamics by alt