2025年第二季度生产量强劲增长，但销售受物流问题影响

FY27E6,5133.1965.40.738.4na8.60.85.89.7(30.7) Target PriceHK$34.00(Previous TPHK$36.00)Up/Downside6.4%Current PriceHK$31.95China EnergyWayne FUNG, CFA(852) 3900 0826waynefung@cmbi.com.hkStock DataMkt Cap (HK$ mn)42,188.0Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn)52w High/Low (HK$)36.65/21.85Total Issued Shares (mn)Source: FactSetShareholding StructureYankuang EnergyChina Cinda AMSource: HKExShare PerformanceAbsoluteRelative3.4%35.1%10.2%-10.4%Source: FactSet12-mth Price PerformanceSource: FactSetAuditor: ShineWing AustraliaRelated Reports1.Yancoal Australia (3668 HK)–Dividend resumed with 56% pay-out ratio–21 Feb 2025 (link)2.Yancoal Australia (3668 HK)–Potential dividendresumption acatalyst–21 Jan 2025 (link)3.Yancoal Australia (3668 HK)–3Q24 sales volume acceleratedto +21% YoY; on track to achievetarget–18 Oct 2024 (link) 29.01320.462.3%7.7%1-mth1.2%3-mth18.0%6-mth PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ONLAST PAGESource:Wind, CMBIGMFigure5:GC Newc (6000/kCal)pricingSource: Companydata,Argus/McCloskey, GlobalCOAL, CMBIGMFigure7:YAL’s metallurgical ASP vs benchmarksSource:Company data,Argus/McCloskey, GlobalCOAL,CMBIGM0501001502002503003504004505001/1/20161/7/20161/1/20171/7/20171/1/2018US$/tonne0100200300400500600700A$/tYAL's metallurgicalSemi-Soft (FOB Aus) Source:Wind, CMBIGMFigure6: YAL’s thermal ASP vsbenchmarksSource: Companydata,Argus/McCloskey, GlobalCOAL,CMBIGMFigure8:Assumptions onYAL’s ASPSource:Company data, CMBIGM estimates0100200300400500600700A$/tYAL's thermal050100150200250300350400450A$/tThermal Low Vol PCI (FOB, Aus) MetallurgicalBlended PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ONLAST PAGESource: Company data, CMBIGM estimatesNote: Excluding government royaltiesValuationMaintain BUY withnewTP of HK$34(previously HK$36).We value YAL by net present value (NPV), calculated bythe future cash flow of all the reserves based on their effective mine life.Our key assumptions include:Long-term thermal and metallurgical coal price (starting 2028E) of A$130/t and A$200/t respectively;Long-term unit cash costinflation of 1% p.a.;WACC of6.7%, based on risk-free rate of4% (10-yearAustralian governmentbond yield), risk premium of6%,0.5x beta, and10% debt/capital ratio;AUD/HKD rate ofHK$5.Figure10: TP sensitivityto coal priceSource: Company data, CMBIGM estimatesWACCLT coal thermal coal price (A$/t)34901104.7%14265.7%14256.7%14247.7%15238.7%1522Note: Assuming LT thermal coal price = A$130/tWACCLT metallurgical coal price (A$/t)341601804.7%34365.7%32346.7%30327.7%29308.7%2729Note: Assuming LT metallurgical coal price = A$200/t 4130150170385163364758344353324049303846200220240384143363840343537323335303233 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ONLAST PAGEDisclosures& DisclaimersAnalyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part,certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensationwas, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong KongSecurities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report.CMBIGMRatingsBUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGMOUTPERFORM:Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsMARKET-PERFORM:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsUNDERPERFORM:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsCMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimitedAddress: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852)3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank)Important DisclosuresThere are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tail