欧盟27国品牌服装零售的经济影响

ABOUT OXFORD ECONOMICSOxford Economics was founded in 1981 as a commercial venture with OxfordUniversity’s businesscollege to provide economic forecasting and modelling toUK companies and financial institutionsexpanding abroad. Since then, we have become one of the world’s foremost independent globaladvisory firms, providing reports, forecasts,and analytical tools onmore than200 countriesandregions,100industries,and8,000 citiesand regions. Our best-in-class global economic and industrymodels and analytical tools give us an unparalleled ability to forecast external market trendsandassess their economic, social,and business impact.Headquartered in Oxford, England, with regional centres in New York, London, Frankfurt, and Singapore,OxfordEconomics has offices across the globe inAbu Dhabi, Belfast, Chicago, Dubai, Dublin, HongKong, Los Angeles, Mexico City, Milan, Paarl, Paris, Philadelphia, Sydney, Tokyo, and Toronto. We employ600 staff, including more than440professional economists, industry experts, and business editors—oneof the largest teams ofmacroeconomists and thought leadership specialists. Our global team is highlyskilled in a full range of research techniques and thought leadership capabilities from econometricmodelling, scenario framing, and economic impact analysis to market surveys, case studies, expertpanels, and web analytics.Oxford Economics is a key adviser to corporate, financial,and government decision-makers andthought leaders. Our worldwide client base now comprises over2,000 international organisations,including leading multinational companies and financial institutions; key government bodies and tradeassociations; and top universities, consultancies, and think tanks.May2025All data shown in tables and chartsareOxford Economics’ own data, except where otherwise statedand cited in footnotes, andarecopyright © Oxford Economics Ltd.The modelling and results presented here arebasedoninformation provided by third parties, uponwhich Oxford Economics has relied in producing its report and forecasts in goodfaith.Anysubsequent revision or update of those data will affect the assessments and projections shown.To discuss the report further please contact:Stefan Gorgels:sgorgels@oxfordeconomics.comOxford EconomicsMarienstraße15,60329Frankfurt am Main,GermanyTel: +4969 96758658 i TABLE OF CONTENTS1. Introduction..........................................................................................................................................12.Sector definition................................................................................................................................22.1 The branded clothing retail sector...........................................................................................22.2 Approximating the share of footwear and relevant leather products........................32.3 Approximating the share of clothing and footwear in retail sales via mail orderor via internet......................................................................................................................................43. Economic impact modelling..........................................................................................................53.1 Theoretical foundation..................................................................................................................53.2 Estimating the direct effect of branded clothing retail in the EU.................................63.3 Estimating the indirect and induced effect of branded clothing retail in the EU...63.4 Summary of the economic impact estimation results......................................................74.Trade analysis......................................................................................................................................9Appendix 1..............................................................................................................................................11 1.INTRODUCTIONWith a total contribution of331.8 billioneuro to the EU’sGrossDomestic Product (GDP)and4.5millionsupported jobs, the branded clothing retail industrycontributes about 2%to GDP andemployment intheEU.1Although the sector is characterised by a high level of trade intensity andglobal supplynetworks,most ofitseconomic contribution can beattributed to thelocal supply chain,including logisticsand marketing companies, for example.These and other findingsarethe result of our study on “The Economic Impact of Branded ClothingRetailin the EU” commissioned by theEuropean Branded Clothing Association (EBCA).In this methodological report, we describe our approach to estimating the economic impact ofbrandedclothingretail in the EU.The analysis was based on publicly available data only andcoveredthe 27 EU Member States. Theyear of reference was 2023.InChapter2,we describe the sectoral definition. This step is crucial since the branded clothing retailsector is not represented in the officialclassificati