宏观周报：局势升级

Restricted - External Ben McLannahan*+44 (0)20 3134 9586ben.mclannahan@barclays.comBarclays, UKJennifer Cardilli*+1 212 526 8351jennifer.cardilli@barclays.comBCI, USJill Nentwig*+ 1 212 526 5129jillian.nentwig@barclays.comBCI, USSharon Mutiti*+44 (0)20 7773 1208sharon.mutiti@barclays.comBarclays, UK Calls and events•US/Iran: Escalation. Mon 23 June, 7:30am (NY). Register here.•Sustainable investing in EM corporates. Mon 23 June, 1pm (LDN). Register here.•Trump's tax bill. Tue 24 June, 9am (NY). Register here.•EM Horizons: South Africa in focus. Wed 25 June, 1pm (LDN). Register here.•Q3 Global Outlook. Thu 26 June, 10am (NY). Register here.Join us in London onThursday, 26 Junefor our flagshipEuropean Investment Grade CreditConference. We'll cover the global macro outlook and hot themes including trade tensions, EMopportunities, auto-sector troubles and the future of the UK water sector. Register here.Research highlights•Divisions have widened at the Fed. Last week the FOMC held, happy to wait for evidence oftariffeffectson inflation. But a move up in the median dots for 2026 and 2027 was hawkish.We still see a single cut this year, in December, despite a second-consecutive quarter ofbelow-trend growth in Q2. Last week's data showed a large overall decline in retail sales,lacklustre industrial production, and weak housing starts. Meanwhile, much-awaited TIC datafor April provided some evidence of the "sell US" narrative. Federal Reserve Commentary:June FOMC: Two camps, 19 June 2025; US Outlook: The best lack all conviction, 20 June2025; US Rates Strategy: April TIC: Foreign demand sours, 18 June 2025 2 FIGURE 4. ...while import prices still suggest thattariffcosts are beingabsorbed domesticallySource: BLS, Haver Analytics, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 6. ...and then a big reboundSource: Barclays ResearchRearming Europe will take time.NATO leaders are poised to agree on higher defencespending targets at the 24–25 June summit. But European countries are likely to scale upexpenditure only gradually, as fiscal space is at a premium. Moreover, the scope andincentives of the new SAFE mechanism and other EU-level instruments are limited. As such,they will probably fall short of providing the paradigmshiftneeded to drive collective action.Euro Themes: Europe plays defence (II), 20 June 2025Fiscal stimulus is a game-changer for Germany.The euro area's biggest economy has beena laggard for years, as potential growth rates have languished. But the large deficit-financedfiscal expansion – an option not available to France, Italy or Spain – should mean it leads EAgrowth next year, helped by Bund yields capped by ECB easing. In equities, MDAX/small capshave the best risk-reward, given depressed valuations and high sensitivity to domesticgrowth. German stimulus: Playing the long game, 18 June 2025; EA and UK Themes: Potentialgrowth: Quo vadis?, 23 June 2025China’s real-estate sector is still searching for a bottom. The good news: retail salesrebounded last month due to front-loading of demand, as e-commerce firms began the mid-year festival earlier. But the property market continues to languish, notching a deeper fall in3 FIGURE 5. We see weak German growth this year...••• FIGURE 7. Housing starts keep slipping in China...FIGURE 8. ...while price falls have broadenedSource: Wind, Barclays Researchinvestment, sales and home prices. We maintain our below-consensus China GDP growthforecast of 4.0% for 2025, though we see some upside risks to Q2performance. China:Property woes worsen, retail sales rebound, 16 June 2025America's supply of workers is falling sharply. We expect the labour force and economicactivity to slow significantly because of two mighty headwinds: tighter controls onimmigration policies, and a shrinking non-immigrant pool as the population ages and olderworkers retire. In our simulation, private nonfarm payroll gains slow to less than 10k/monthfor the next two years. Barring a big breakthrough in productivity, that would imply realpotential GDP growth of just 1.4-1.6%. US Immigration: Two mighty headwinds, 23 June 2025Boosting grid resilience is a clear priority for European utilities.Last week, the Spanishgovernment published its report on the Iberian blackout of 28 April, shedding light on a keyquestion: whether high reliance on renewable power had contributed to instability. Thereport suggests thatinsufficientvoltage control capacity was the main cause, rather thanexcess renewables. This strengthens our view that Europe is on the cusp of a capexsupercycle. European Utilities: Network security (part 3): The results are in, 23 June 2025Key forecast revisionsWe revisedgrowthandinflationforecasts ahead of the next round of quarterly publications.Euro area: We now project realGDPgrowth of 0.8% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026 (prev. 0.9% and0.7%, respectively, and 0.7% and 1.1% in the Global Outlook published on 27 March). Weexpect headlineinflationto average 2.1% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, while core inflationshould e