2025年中期策略：复苏之途，机遇领航
01002003004005006007000500100015002000250030003500400045002023-032024-032025-03成交额(亿元)收盘价 c 一、上半年证券市场回顾..............................................................................................................41.国内主要指数温和上涨，小盘成长风格占优...............................................................................................42.申万一级行业表现分化，有色金属、银行、国防军工行业涨幅居前...........................................................43.国际市场主要指数涨幅不一，欧洲与新兴市场表现突出.............................................................................5二、国内外宏观经济展望..............................................................................................................61.国内宏观经济：经济持续复苏，内需接力外需............................................................................................62.国内宏观政策：财政政策和货币政策协调发力，一揽子政策出炉提振经济..............................................103.海外宏观经济：美联储降息路径不改，特朗普关税政策扰动全球经济.....................................................13三、A股流动性展望...................................................................................................................171.两市成交量激增，新增开户数量显著提升.................................................................................................172.投资者风险偏好改善，融资融券余额有望持续增加..................................................................................173.人民币汇率稳步走强，北向资金有望持续流入..........................................................................................184.保险资金是市场的重要增量资金，政策支持下未来保险资金流入规模有望提升......................................19四、2025年A股中期投资策略..................................................................................................201.科技...........................................................................................................................................................202.新消费........................................................................................................................................................243.创新药........................................................................................................................................................254.反内卷........................................................................................................................................................275.红利...........................................................................................................................................................286.有色金属....................................................................................................................................................29 2......................................................................................................................5..................................................................................................................5....................................................................................................................................................6......................................................................................................................................................7......................................................................................................................................................7...........................................................................................................................................8.....................................................................................................................................9......................................................................................................................................................9.....................................................................................................10............................................................................................................................10.........................................................................................................................11................................................................................................................................12 3....................................................................................................................................12..................................................................................................................................................13...............................................................................................................................................14............................................................................................................................14.......................................................................................................................................15.....................................................................................................16..............................................................
