中国经济：稳健增长降低政策宽松可能性

Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hkBingnan YE, Ph.D(852) 3761 8967yebingnan@cmbi.com.hkSource:Wind, CMBIGMSource:Wind, CMBIGM(25)(20)(15)(10)(5)051015202520192020202120222023Retail salesFAIYoY(%, 2Y CAGR for 2021,2Y CAGR for retail sales in 2023)(15)(10)(5)051020192020202120222023VAIOService output indexYoY(%, 2Y CAGR for 2021and 2023 Mar-Dec) Exports of goods PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGErecovery in 1H25 driven by the expanding trade-in schemes,we may seea notable slowdown inthe second half of the year, asthe robust 1H25 cameatthe expense of future demand.FAIcontinued to moderateacross major sectors.TotalFAI growthdropped to2.8% in6M25 from3.7% in5M25,belowmarket expectationsat3.7%, while its monthly YoY dropped to 0.5% in June from 2.9%, one ofthe lowestgrowth ratesinthepast 4 years.Themoderation was broad-based. Property development investment further contracted to-12.9% inJunefrom-12% inMay,asthehousing market remainedinover-supply.Manufacturing FAI edged down to5.1% inJunefrom7.8%, as shocks fromthetrade war andnarrowing profit marginscontinued to weight on corporateCapex. Sectors includingtextile,non-ferrous metals smelting & pressing,medicine,general equipment,electrical equipment and computer&electronicssaw notable moderation.Infrastructure FAI notably sloweddown to 5.3% in June from 9.2%,despitethe robust government bondissuance. Looking forward, FAI growth might mildlymoderatefrom 3.2% in2024 to 2.3% in 2025asproperty development investmentremained indeep contraction. Manufacturing andinfrastructure investment growth islikely to fall from 9.2% and 9.2% in 2024 to 6.5% and 7.0% in 2025, on ourestimates.Industrial outputbeat market expectation amidrobust manufacturingoutput.VAIO growth accelerated to 6.8% in June from 5.8% in May,notably abovemarket consensusat5.5%.Miningedged up to 6.1% in Junefrom 5.7%while public utility edged down to1.8% in May from2.2%.VAIOof manufacturingrebounded thanks to the robust exports in June, as textile,chemical products,rubber & plastic products,andgeneraland special-purposeequipmentpicked up, whileother transport equipment,and ferrousmetal smelting & pressing moderated. Growth of service output indexedged downto 6% inJunefrom 6.2%inMay. Looking forward, industrialoutput may deceleratedue to theheadwinds fromexportsand demandoverdraftfromtrade-in subsidies.Thesoftening demandsignals broader economic weakening in 2H25.China economy is likely to experience further headwinds in 2H25, assofteningproperty sales,diminishingpolicyeffect ofthetrade-in schemeand strict alcohol ban on government employeesweigh on consumption,andsoftening exportssuppressmanufacturing output and investment.Withthe trade deal with the US being reached potentially in 4Q25, China mightfocus on economy rebalancing with stronger fiscal expansion, additionalconsumption stimulus and faster overcapacity reduction. In4Q25, weexpect a further 10bps LPR cutand 50bps RRR cut.We see theneed toramp updirect fiscal support to households and property sector, as liftingpurchase restrictions andthetrade-in scheme seems insufficient now.  PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGESource: Wind, CMBIGMFigure5:Recovery rate of second-hand housing salescompared to 2019 in 11 selective citiesSource: Wind, CMBIGMNote:The 11 cities include Beijing,Shenzhen,Hangzhou,Nanjing,Chengdu, Qingdao, Suzhou, Xiamen, Wuxi, Dongguan and Foshan2025-032025-052025-074060801001201401601802020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-05Recovery rate of second-hand housing sales(%) Source: Wind, CMBIGMFigure4:New housing sales recovery ratescompared to 2018-2019 in 30 citiesSource: Wind, CMBIGM204060801001201401601802020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-07Tier 1 cities(%) 3 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGESource: Wind, CMBIGMFigure 9: Retail sales related to outgoing activitiesSource: Wind, CMBIGMFigure 11:Urban unemployment rate & housing rentSource:Wind, CMBIGM(50)(40)(30)(20)(10)010203020192020CosmeticsPetroleum productYoY(%,2YCAGR for 2021 and 2023 Mar-Dec)4.55.05.56.06.5201820192020Urban surveyed unemployment rate (LHS)Housing rent growth (RHS)(%) Source: Wind, CMBIGMFigure8:Home appliance & furniture retail salesSource:Wind, CMBIGMFigure 10: Consumer confidenceSource: Wind, CMBIGM(40)(30)(20)(10)0102030405060201920202021Home applianceConstruction & decoration materialsFurnitureYoY(%,2YCAGR for 2021 and 2023 Mar-Dec)30323436384042444620172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Household saving rate (LHS)(YTD,%) PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGESource: Wind, CMBIGMFigure14: VAIO in equipmentSource: Wind, CMBIGMFigure16:Output insteel & construction materialsSource: Wind, CMBIGM(30)(25)(20)(15)(10)(5)05101520201920202021General purpose equipSpecial purpose equipElectrical material & equipComputer, telecom &