中国经济：增长放缓或促使政策宽松

Weakening growthmay prompt policy easing Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk China’sGDP just managed to meet the full-year target despite a sharp slowdownin 4Q.Property market remained in deep contraction in Dec, with both sales andpricescontinuedto deteriorate. Retail sales dropped to a new low post-Coviddue to the demand overdraft from trade-in subsidy, while FAIdeclinednotablydragged by slumping property sector, the anti-involution campaign and tighterLG fiscal rules. VAIO picked up thanks to the rebound in delivery value forexports in Dec. A high base and a sharp loss ofmomentum toward end-2025are likely to extend the deceleration into 1Q26, increasing the risk to achieve the5% growth target and triggering renewed policy easing in 1Q26,in our view.Thesupportis expected to focus on the property sector via a mix of monetaryandfiscal tools, including further LPR cuts and interest payment subsidies, whiledirect inventory purchases fromthe Central Governmentremain unlikely before Bingnan YE, Ph.D(852) 3761 8967frankliu@cmbi.com.hk Despite a sharp slowdown in 4Q, GDP just managed to meet the full-year target.China’s GDP growth in YoY terms (all on a YoY basis unlessotherwise specified) moderated to 4.5% in 4Q25 from 4.8% in 3Q25, withfull-year GDP growth in 2025 just managed to meet the targetof5%. GDPdeflator narrowed to-0.7% in 4Q25 from 1% in 3Q25,as anti-involutioncampaign drove price reflation particularly in upstream sectors. Full-yearbirths fell to 7.02mn, the lowest level since the founding ofthePRC, while Property sectordeteriorated on both sales and prices.The contractionofgross floor area (GFA) sold forcommercialbuildingsdropped8.7% in2025 compared to-12.9% in 2024according totheNBS, marking the thirdyear in contraction, while the residential sales dropped to-9.2% in 2025compared to-14.1% in 2024.Thenew housing sales in first half of Jancontinued to slump according to market data, as the recovery ratio of 30major cities compared to 2018-2019 dripped below 30%, while its YoYcontraction expanded to-41% in early Jan from-32% in Dec. Second-handhousing sales of 11 selective cities moderately rebounded as its recovery Source: Wind, CMBIGM Retail sales continuedto weaken.Retail sales growthfurther declined to0.9%, below market consensus at 1.5%.Over the year, retail sales edgedup to 3.7% in 2025 from 3.5% in 2024. Impacts of trade-insubsidieshavelargely run its course, as home appliances, furniture,construction materialsand auto remained in contraction at-18.7%,-2.2%,-11.8% and-5%.Telecomequipment and cultural & office products, on the other hand, rebounded.Looking forward,weexpect consumption growth to be flat in2026 with aslowdown in retail sales growth yet a pick-up in serviceconsumption.Retail sales of consumer goods mayslowfrom3.7%in 2025 FAIYTD growth remained subdued.The YoY growth of FAI furtherslumped to-16% in Dec from-11.1% in Nov. Over the year, the FAI droppedto-3.8% in 2025 compared to 3.2% in2024, dragged by deep contraction inthe property sector, the anti-involution campaign and tighter LG fiscal rules.Property investment further dropped 36.5%inDec from-29.9% in Nov,another record slumpon an already low base. Thehousing market remainedover-supply while the advance payment and mortgage loans in fundingsource both declined by 16% and 18% in 2025.Infrastructure investmentfurther dropped 16% in Dec with full-year growth at-1.5%, as investment inrailway & road transport, public facility,water conservancy and socialwelfare further dipped. Manufacturing investmentdeclined to-10.6%in Dec Industrial outputedged up.VAIO growthinched upto5.2% inDecfrom4.8%,beatingmarket consensusat4.9%.Miningslowed downto5.4% inDec from 6.3% in Nov,while public utility dropped to 0.8% from 4.3%.VAIOof manufacturingaccelerated to 5.7% in Dec from 4.6% in Nov,as deliveryvalue for exports rebounded to 3.2% in Dec from-0.1%.Textile, chemicalproducts, medicine specialequipmentand computers, telecom & electronicequipmentnotably picked up while auto and other transport equipment Sustained demand softening pointed to weak 1Q26, which may promptpolicyeasing.Policymakers stayed put in 2H25 despite a notableeconomic slowdown, as the 5% full-year growth target remained achievable.However, a high base effect and a sharp loss ofmomentum toward end-2025 are likely to extend the growth deceleration into 1Q26,making the5%growth target for 2026moredifficult to attain, which could prompt a newround of policy easing. Support for the struggling property sector is expectedto form a core part of the easing package, likely combining monetary andfiscal measures, including further LPR cuts and interest payment subsidies.Directinventory purchases by the Central Government remain underdiscussion among policymakers but are unlikely to materialize before 2H26.On consumption, while wedo notexpect aggressive stimulus, the policy Source: Wind, CMBIGM Source: Wind, CMBIGM Source: Wind, CMBIGMNote:The 11 cities include Bei