未来城市风险景观：保险视角

Kai-Uwe SchanzDeputy Managing Director and Head of Foresight & ResearchThe Geneva AssociationFuture Urban Risk Landscapes:An insurance perspective 2The Geneva AssociationThe Geneva Association was created in 1973 and is the only global association of insurance companies; ourmembers are insurance and reinsurance Chief Executive Officers (CEOs). Based on rigorous research conductedin collaboration with our members, academic institutions and multilateral organisations, our mission is toidentify and investigate key trends that are likely to shape or impact the insurance industry in the future,highlighting what is at stake for the industry; develop recommendations for the industry and for policymakers;provide a platform to our members and other stakeholders to discuss these trends and recommendations;and reach out to global opinion leaders and influential organisations to highlight the positive contributions ofinsurance to better understanding risks and to building resilient and prosperous economies and societies, andthus a more sustainable world.Geneva Association publications:Pamela Corn, Director CommunicationsHannah Dean, Editor and Content ManagerPetr Neugebauer, Digital Media ManagerSuggested citation: The Geneva Association. 2021.Future Urban Risk Landscapes: An insurance perspective.Author: Kai-Uwe Schanz. November.© The Geneva Association, 2021 All rights reservedwww.genevaassociation.orgPhoto credits:Cover page— Shutterstock.com ContentsForeword1.Executive summary2.Introduction3.The dynamics of urbanisation3.1Scale and pace3.2Determinants4.An integrated assessment of future urban risk landscapes4.1A conceptual framework of urban risk4.2Climate change4.3Smart cities4.4Socio-economic and demographic shifts5.Harnessing insurance solutions5.1The drivers of insurance in urban areas5.2Property and casualty insurance and urbanisation5.3Life and health insurance and urbanisation5.4Challenges to insurance solutions for urban areas6.Conclusions and recommendationsReferences 3Future Urban Risk Landscapes: An insurance perspective568101011131418222326262831323337 4AcknowledgementsThis publication is a product of the Socio-economic Resilience work stream of TheGeneva Association, co-sponsored by Christian Mumenthaler, CEO of Swiss Re, andMarkus Riess, CEO of ERGO.We would like to thank the members of the Working Group, established in support ofour Socio-economic Resilience research activities, namely: Manuel Aguilera (MAPFRE),Matthew Blakely (RGA), Olivier Desbiey (AXA), Paul DiPaola (AIG), Naomi Graham (IAG),Arne Holzhausen (Allianz), Thomas Holzheu (Swiss Re), Kei Kato (Tokio Marine),Mehul Mehta (Chubb), Gisela Plassmann (ERGO), Gonzalo de Cadenas Santiago(MAPFRE) and Clarence Wong (Peak Re). In addition, we are very grateful to JuliettePrieur (AXA Research Fund) and Lauren Sorkin (Resilient Cities Network) for their supportin connecting us to senior experts.Our special thanks go to the following contributors to this publication:•Deborah Balk, Professor, Marxe School of Public and International Affairs,Baruch College, The City University of New York•William Donner, Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Texas RioGrande Valley•Saurabh Gaidhani, Lead Programs, Resilient Cities Network•Snigdha Garg, Head of Adaptation Research and Performance,C40 Cities•Mike Gillooly, Chief Resilience Officer, City of Christchurch•Maryam Golnaraghi, Director Climate Change & Environment, The GenevaAssociation•Dagmar Haase, Professor of Landscape Ecology, Humboldt University, Berlin•Mahesh Harhare, Chief Resilience Officer, Pune City, Member of Global SteeringCommittee, Resilient Cities Network•Cassidy Johnson, Professor of Urbanism and Disaster Risk Reduction at theBartlett Development Planning Unit, University College London•Lykke Leonardsen, Head of Program for Resilient and Sustainable City Solutions,City of Copenhagen•James F. Murley, Chief Resilience Officer, Miami Dade County•Alfredo Redondo, Senior Advisor, Diplomacy and Engagement, Coalition forUrban Transitions•Debra Roberts, Head of the Sustainable and Resilient City Initiatives Unit ineThekwini Municipality in Durban, South Africa. ForewordFuture Urban Risk Landscapes: An insurance perspective The world’s population continues to grow, and that growth is essentially centred incities. By 2050, over two thirds of the world’s population is expected to live in urbanenvironments, up from just under a third in 1950. Cities bring huge economic and socialbenefits, but they are also complex and vulnerable ecosystems that are exposed to anexponential rise in risks.The future urban risk landscape will be shaped on multiple fronts. Climate changethreatens to bring more extreme weather events, such as floods, heatwaves and harshwinters; human density accelerates the speed at which infectious diseases spread, whilesocial inequality can exacerbate the risks of social unrest and crime. Smart cities have thepotential to create efficiencies and build resilience, but they also