保险在不断变化的风险格局中的价值

THE VALUE OF INSURANCEIN A CHANGING RISKLANDSCAPEKai-Uwe Schanz, Head of Research & Foresight and DirectorSocio-economic Resilience, The Geneva AssociationContributing authors:Alex Braun, Professor, Institute of Insurance Economics,University of St. GallenMartin Eling, Professor, Institute of Insurance Economics,University of St. GallenChristoph Jaenicke, Research Associate, Institute of InsuranceEconomics, University of St. GallenAleksandar Jovanović, Visiting professor, ETH Risk Center, SwissFederal Institute of Technology ZurichHélène Schernberg, Executive Director, ETH Risk Center, SwissFederal Institute of Technology ZurichPieralberto Treccani, Research Support Manager, The GenevaAssociation The Geneva AssociationThe Geneva Association was created in 1973 and is the only global association of insurancecompanies; our members are insurance and reinsurance Chief Executive Officers (CEOs).Based on rigorous research conducted in collaboration with our members, academicinstitutions and multilateral organisations, our mission is to identify and investigate keytrends that are likely to shape or impact the insurance industry in the future, highlightingwhat is at stake for the industry; develop recommendations for the industry and forpolicymakers; provide a platform to our members and other stakeholders to discuss thesetrends and recommendations; and reach out to global opinion leaders and influentialorganisations to highlight the positive contributions of insurance to better understandingrisks and to building resilient and prosperous economies and societies, and thus a moresustainable world.Geneva Association publications:Pamela Corn, Director CommunicationsHannah Dean, Editor & Content ManagerKelly Gailey, Communications & Events ManagerSuggested citation: The Geneva Association. 2023.The Value of Insurance in a Changing Risk Landscape.Author: Kai-Uwe Schanz. November.© The Geneva Association, 2023 All rights reservedwww.genevaassociation.orgPhoto credits:Cover page – Joshua Fuller on unsplash 2 ContentsForewordExecutive summary1.Introduction2.The changing risk landscape2.1A novel representation of emerging risks2.2Digging deeper: Tangible, intangible and systemic risks3.Implications for insurability and risk transfer3.1Applying the most common criteria of insurability3.2The scope for innovative approaches to risk transfer4.The need to think beyond risk transfer4.1Providing a broader spectrum of risk services4.2Promoting sustainable development4.3Engaging in public-private partnerships5.The reality check: A global customer survey5.1The retail customer perspective5.2The commercial customer perspective6.ConclusionsReferences 568111216212225272831343638465658 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThis report is a product of the Socio-economic Resilience (SER) work stream of The GenevaAssociation, co-sponsored by Christian Mumenthaler, CEO of Swiss Re and Chairman of TheGeneva Association, and Markus Riess, CEO of ERGO.We would like to thank the members of the Working Group, established in support ofour SER research activities, namely: Manuel Aguilera (MAPFRE), Matthew Blakely (RGA),SenChen (CPPIC), Olivier Desbiey (AXA), Diane Flanagan (Intact Financial Corporation),David Franco (Lloyd’s), Naomi Graham (IAG), Arne Holzhausen (Allianz), Thomas Holzheu(SwissRe), Kei Kato (Tokio Marine), Neil Kempston (Beazley), Artur Klinger (Everest),Roberto Malo (VidaCaixa), Klaus Mühleder (Vienna Insurance Group), Gisela Plassmann(ERGO), Gonzalo de Cadenas Santiago (MAPFRE), Camila Serna (Chubb), Clarence Wong(Peak Re) and Ernesto Zaccaria (Ageas). 4 Foreword ‘Risk’ is more than an ubiquitous term in insurance parlance. From car accidents to sickness,we all encounter – if not experience – the embodiment of risk every day. But risk is changing.With the COVID-19 pandemic, we saw the manifestation of a global, systemic risk,affecting many people and businesses around the world at the same time. This brought tolight a hard-but-important truth for the insurance industry and society: while insuranceremains relevant for a broad range of risks, there are risks today which are too big – whichcause financial losses too great – for insurers to bear alone. Unfortunately, the list of thesetypes of risks is growing.What does the future of insurance look like in a world with more widespread,interconnectedand hard-to-predict risks? How should insurers respond to the growing prevalence ofintangible risks, such as those linked to the rise of the digital economy? This year, as TheGeneva Association marks its 50th anniversary, we set out to answer these questionsthrough our research and an insurance customer survey.This report explores specific risks that are already – or may prove – challenging to insuregiven their damage and loss potential and their unpredictability. Climate and cyber risksstand out. According to our survey, insurance customers do not take insurance in theseareas for granted. They see an important role for governments in keeping insuranceavail