碎片化世界经济中的保险

Kai-Uwe SchanzDirector Macro & Geoeconomic Shifts | Financial InclusionGeneva AssociationInsurance in aFragmentedWorld Economy Geneva AssociationThe Geneva Association was created in 1973 and is the only global association ofinsurance companies; our members are insurance and reinsurance Chief ExecutiveOfficers (CEOs). Based on rigorous research conducted in collaboration with ourmembers, academic institutions and multilateral organisations, our mission is toidentify and investigate key trends that are likely to shape or impact the insuranceindustry in the future, highlighting what is at stake for the industry; developrecommendations for the industry and for policymakers; provide a platform to ourmembers and other stakeholders to discuss these trends and recommendations;and reach out to global opinion leaders and influential organisations to highlightthe positive contributions of insurance to better understanding risks and to buildingresilient and prosperous economies and societies, and thus a more sustainable world.Geneva Association publications:Pamela Corn, Director CommunicationsHannah Dean, Editor & Content ManagerJooin Shin, Digital Content & Design ManagerSuggested citation: Geneva Association. 2025.Insurance in a Fragmented World Economy.Author: Kai-Uwe Schanz. January.© Geneva Association, 2025 All rights reservedwww.genevaassociation.orgPhoto credits:Cover page – Getty Images for Unsplash+ 2 ForewordExecutive summary1.Introduction2.Economic manifestations of geoeconomic fragmentation2.1Cross-border trade2.2Cross-border capital flows and supply chains2.3Technology diffusion2.4Provision of global public goods2.5Economic growth2.6Inflation3.Implications for insurers and their role in society3.1Mitigation of global risks3.2International risk diversification3.3Global footprint3.4Commercial and specialty insurance3.5Retail insurance3.6Financial markets4.Possible responses from the insurance industry4.1Scenario planning4.2Strategic responses along the value chain5.ConclusionsReferencesContents 56915171820202023242627283033343738394345 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThis report is a product of the Macro & Geoeconomic Shifts (MGS) work stream of the GenevaAssociation, co-sponsored by Lard Friese, CEO, Aegon, and Hiroshi Shimizu, CEO, Nippon Life.We are indebted to Lard Friese and Hiroshi Shimizu for their contributions to this report through in-depth interviews as well as to the following expert and executive interlocutors:•Miguel Abecasis, Executive Board Member, Fidelidade•Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, Generali Investments•Rebekah Clement, Lloyd’s Corporate Affairs Director•Nicolas Desombre, Chairman of Financial Institutions Group EMEA and Global Insurance Banking,Capital Markets & Advisory, Citi•Gerardo Di Filippo, Head of Group Risk Management Processes and Operations, Generali•Kweilin Ellingrud, McKinsey Global Institute Director and Senior Partner•Jerome Haegeli, Group Chief Economist, Swiss Re•Brad Irick, Co-Head of International Business, Tokio Marine•Robert Kahn, Managing Director, Geo-economics, Eurasia Group•Michael Menhart, Head of Economics, Sustainability and Public Affairs, Munich Re•Michele Morganti, Head of Insurance and Asset Management Research, Generali Investments Europe•Bryan Pickel, Head of Global Government Affairs and Sustainability, Prudential Financial•Thomas Seidl, Head of Group Strategy & Portfolio Management, Allianz•Derek Shi, Deputy General Manager, PingAn P&C•Sheldon Yu, CEO, Taiping ReinsuranceFurthermore, we would like to thank Runhuan Feng, Chair Professor of Finance, Tsinghua University,Beijing, and Jean Kwon, Professor of International Insurance and Risk Management, St. John’sUniversity, New York, for their editorial contributions to this report.We are also very grateful to the members of the Working Group, established in support of our MGSresearch activities, namely: Manuel Aguilera-Verduzco (MAPFRE), Tomo Asaka (Tokio Marine),Jordi Balcells (VidaCaixa), Gonzalo de Cadenas Santiago (MAPFRE), Olivier Desbiey (AXA),Michael Fischer (VIG), David Franco (Lloyd’s), Steffen Heij (Aegon), Arne Holzhausen (Allianz),Thomas Holzheu (Swiss Re), Andrew Kennedy (Chubb), Artur Klinger (Everest), Keith Krause(Aegon), Hervé Lievore (AIA), Roberto Malo (VidaCaixa), Connar McBain (Phoenix Group),Makoto Okubo (Nippon Life), Vincent Paquet (Intact Financial), Benoit Waltregny (Lloyd’s),Clarence Wong (Peak Re), Ernesto Zaccaria (Ageas) and Paolo Zanghieri (Generali). 4 ForewordThe tides of globalisation are shifting. Nations are increasingly prioritising securityover efficiency, a trend that has given rise to ‘geoeconomic fragmentation’. Thisphenomenon, marked by reduced global economic integration as a result of newbarriers to cross-border trade and capital flows, has profound implications foreconomies and industries worldwide. Models project that in its most severe form,geoeconomic fragmentation could slash global GDP growth by as much as 7%,compared to 10-year baseline forecasts.Our repo