2Q奢侈品行业cFX销售表现积极

IndustryEuropean Luxury AdamCochraneResearch Analyst+44-20-754-17812Alison LygoResearch Analyst+44-20-754-11724Do-Hyun YooResearchAssociate+44-20-754-19487Shwetha RamachandranResearchAssociate Investor interest returningto the sectorWe are seeing a shift in investor interest back into the luxury sector as "FOMO"replaces "YOLO" as the sector driver. There are still a number of question marks onthe underlying sector trends and how long it will take luxury consumption to revertto previous levels but the demand is unlikely to get much worse and we wouldexpectaseguentialimprovementincFXsalesfromhere.Givenlargeweightinginindices, we believe that investors do not want to miss out on any rally in the sector.We believe the sector allocation may be more important than the actual stockpicking in the next 12 months. This has not been the case in the last year.Theinvestor positioning in the sectoris so consensual with Hermes, Richemont andBurberry all investorfavourites whichcreates the riskof finding the incrementalbuyer that little bit harder. The bigger potential delta arises from LVMH and Kering,in our view, with easier comparisons likely to suggest a bigger potential rebound.We see these stocks as likely to benefit more from a sentiment change amongstinvestorsthanthemorewell-ownednames.Figure 1: Summary of recommendationsSYCBP/EGY6CochraneSource : Deutsche Bank Research9Underlying data still mixedThe limited number of data points availab@forthe luxury sector suggests thatas weexit 2Q the run rate may be, sliehtfy better than the period average which isconfidence was impacted'Bythtariff discussion but with the subsequent stockmarket recovery we see luxury spend as starting to improve as the periodprogressed. In China, domestic demand has remained subdued but we are lookingforward to a recovery in 2H with an additional benefit from repatriated spend fromprevious overseas spending. In Europe, the domestic demand appears to have heldup but sales have been impacted by weaker tourist spending.The aspirational customer weakness is still the major drag for the sector and thereisstillsome debateastowhetherthis isa cyclical orstructural issueforthe sectorgiven price increases and a change in the "value for money" equation. This putsmore pressure to chasing the ViP customers who make up less than 1% of thecustomerbase butmayequateto c.20%of luxuryspending.Thedefault positionforinvestorshasbeentoownthemore"defensive"luxurynamesinHermesandRichemont but we see scope for this to change over the remainder of 2025.Page 2 FOMO-Fear of Missing OutYOLO - You Only Live OnceDeutsche Bank AG 11July2025LuxuryGoodsEuropean LuxuryFigure 2: Luxury sector starting to rally in anticipation ofthe next sector upcycle.LVMH SP vs. consensus 2H25 EBIT margin725675625575525475SP (LHS)2H25 EBIT margin (cons, RHS)425Source : Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank ResearchFigure 4: Luxury imports into the US have increased butmore driven by tariff uncertainty than demandUSconsumerconfidence(income$125k+)vs.USluxuryimport index1US luxury imports YoY index, 3MA (YoY%, LHS)1Consumer confidence, Household income $125k+,3MA (YoY,RHS)70%50%30%10%-10%-30%-50%-70%20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Source : US Census Bureau, Conference Board, Deutsche BankWotes: Import data as of May 2025; 1J US index is the simple aver/ewellery value (FR, /Tand CH) and Swiss watch unit imports into NADeutsche Bank AG Figure 3:...but there has been no shift in cFX salesmomentumasyetLVMHSPvs.consensus2H25OrganicGrowth775725675625575525475SP (LHS)2H25 Organic Growth (cons, RHS)425Jul 24 Aug 24Sep 24Oct 24Nov 24Dec 24Jan 25Feb 25Mar 25 Apr 25May 25Jun 25 Jul 25Source : Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank ResearchFigure 5: Consumer confidence remains low which maytemper the luxury sector recoveryEuropean luxury weighted avg. fwd P/E vs. GlobalconsumerconfidenceMarket cap weighted average P/E (LHS)---Consumer confidence YoY%; Simple average of US, China and Europe (RHS)50301020142015201620172018201920202021 202220232024 2025Source : Bloomberg Finance LP, University of Michigan, NBS, INSEE, Kantar, ISTAT, Deutsche BankWote: Europe is a simple average of France, Germany and Italy 27%26%25%24%23%22%21%40%20%40%te of YoY% in handbag units (FR, IT), 30%20%10%10%-20%30%Page 3 11July2025Luxury GoodsEuropean LuxuryComparable base set-up is tricky for 2H 2025Theset-upfor2H25iscomplicatedbythedifferencein3Qand4QcFXperformancefromlast year where the weakness in 3Q reversed into a strong recovery in 4Q aidedbya betterpost electionUS consumer.Thiswill likely createthepositionwhereexcitement builds into the better 3Q print before we tempered expectation for 4Qfrom management teams. The difference in cFX comparatives for 1H versus 2H ismaterial as can be seen below with LVMH, Kering and Burberry facing negativecomparatives with Richemont actually facing an incrementally toughercomparative in 2H.Figure 6: Sector semi annual cFXSemiannualsectorweightedavgcFxevolution (cons)3%3%2%2%1%1%