欧洲奢侈品行业2季度报告：正面的外汇销售表现

StrategyEuropean DailyFocus Jonathan JayarajanResearch Analyst+44-20-754-76037Figure 1: Table of ContentsTop StoriesTarget Price ChangesCompany UpdatesSector UpdatesStrategy / EconomicsGlobal FocusSource : Deutsche BankFigure 2: Target Price ChangesSource : Deutsche Bank EuropeanDailyFocusmodels. We understand that pricing is still down yly which is mainly driven by Chinawhile the mix is rather solid thanks to the 5 Series. Tariffs related costs will likelyhave an impact of a mid three-digit Em amount in the second quarter. In sum, welook for an auto margin of 6.1% so within the FY guidance corridor. We remain onBuy but lift our TP to 90.DEUTSCHE BOERSE (DB1Gn.DE) - Solid quarter expected, outside of thetreasury result headwindBenjamin Goy: Tgt EUR302 to EUR298. Last Close EUR269.70, Buy. Following arare and small earnings miss in 1Q25, investors quickly bought the dip amid thelargely non-recurring nature of the revenue miss and a positive overall outlook forEuropean capital markets and specifically Deutsche Boerse. However, since thenthe stock lagged catalysts as trading volumes faded from the strong April levelswhile interest rate cuts continued. Hence, we forecast total revenue growth of +3%YoY (vs double-digit growth expected at our top pick Euronext) in 2Q25. However,excluding the ongoing normalization of the treasury result, we forecast a veryhealthy +9% YoY growth driven by Trading & Clearing and Fund Services. We trimour forecasts by 2% and our target price falls modestly to EUR298. Trading at 19x2027E EPS and 12x 2027E EV / EBITDA, we continue to like the quality growthprofile of Deutsche Boerse.VOSSLOH (VOSG.DE) - Q2/25 preview - Revenue and EBIT growing but .Lars Vom-Cleff: Tgt EUR85 to EUR102. Last Close EUR88.60, Buy. Vossloh is dueto report its Q2/25 results on 24 July. The company sees continued demand for itsrailway infrastructure solutions and executes on its promises, in our view. Hence,we forecast Q2/25E revenue and EBIT to have increased by 9% yoy and 3% yoy,respectively. This would lead to a lower EBIT margin of 10.2% (-61bps yoy) thoughas Q2/24 benefitted from a more favourable business mix as well as lowerintegration costs for SATEBA. According to managem@nt on the Q1/25 results call,the quality of the order backlog is healthy (Q1/25salv a new record level) and shouldlead to an improving business mix, hence a inCreasing EBIT margin going forwardHowever, weforecast aQ2/25Eorderiuaketobe down 36% yoyas Q2/24hadbeenextremely strong.GERRESHEIMER (GXIG.DE)- Staying on the sidelines post Q2Falko Friedrichs: Tgt EUR58 to EUR55. Last Close EUR50.50, Hold. We remaincautious on Gerresheimer,as visibility regarding the required acceleration in H2appears limited, and this increases the risk that the company's guidance will not beachieved. The low visibility is reflected in the fact that the guidance was slightlyreduced again yesterday, only five weeks after the last cut. Furthermore, it is notforeseeable when the two problem areas-the cosmetics business and destockingin oral liquid containers - will recover. As a result, the required acceleration in H2largely depends on the successful launch of new capacities. In addition to concernsabout achieving this year's guidance, which is again heavily back-end loaded, wealso believe that the new medium-term guidance, with organic sales growth of 6-9%, is ambitious. We would have preferred more conservative guidance that couldpotentially be exceeded. However, the current version already appears to be a best-case scenario, and we see the risk that it may potentially have to be reduced further.JUPITER (JUP.L) - Updating numbers for CCLA; Financially and strategicallysensible dealDavid McCann: Tgt 90p to 110p. Last Close 120p, Hold. We have updated ourforecasts and target price to reflect the CCLA acquisition. Assuming the materialPage 2 Figure 3: Upcoming DB ConferencesNew York, NYAug 12 - 13, 202Technology ConferenceAug 27 - 28, 2025Source : Deutsche BankFigure 4: Global FocusCinemarkInitiating With A Buy: Riding The Wave of Film Slate ExpansiorDelta Air Lines, IncBack and better with FY 2025 EPS guide of $5.25 - $6.25Delta Air Lines, Inc.Raising FY 2025 forecast on stabilizing demandDC Liquid CoolingOur Thoughts on the AWS Liquid Cooling Blog PostEarly Morning ReidMacro StrategySource : Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank AG s European Daily Focuscost synergies targeted can be realized, and without significant revenue dis-synergy (which looks plausible in this case, given limited client/product overlap),we consider the acquisition inexpensive and a sensible use of part of the currentsubstantial surplus capital.Inadditiontothefinancial attractions,webelievethedeal will improve diversification (and therefore resilience) of the group across bothclient(notablyaddingnon-profitand local authorityclients)andproduct(notablymulti-asset, money market and property), and increase scale. In turn this shouldhelp to underpin a more stable group operating profit trajectory an