您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [德意志银行]:太阳能产品要价激增 - 发现报告

太阳能产品要价激增

电气设备 2025-07-10 德意志银行 木子学长v3.5
报告封面

IndustryChina Renewables& Utilities Sector 9 Gary Zhou, CFAResearch Analyst+852-22035889 10July2025Alternative EnergyChina Renewables&Utilities SectorFigure 1: Weekly sub-sector share performance16%14%14%12%12%10%10%8%8%6%4%2%0%-2%Source : Bloomberg Finance LPFigure 2: Solar weekly price dataPolysiliconMono-Si grade polysilicon for N-typeGranular silicon for N-typeNon-China polysilicon priceWafer182mm mono-Si wafer for N-type182*210mm mono-Si wafer for N-type210mm mono-Si wafer for N-typeCell182mm (M10) mono-Si cell for N-type TOPCon182*210mm (G12R) mono-Si cellfor N-type TOPCon210mm (G12) mono-Si cell for N-type TOPConModule182mm N-type TOPCon bi-facial moduleX后CNYWattModule price for utility-scale projectsModule price for distributed solarSolar glass3.2mm solar glass price2.0mm solar glass priceSource : China Silicon AssocWeeklyshareperformance(asof July10,2025).Bysub-sector,Solarsurgedby9%,while IPPs/Gas remained flat and HK utilities/renewable operators/Hydrodecreased by 1%/1%/1%, respectively this week.Recent DB reportsChina Solar Sector: Supply-side reform in focus (Monthly S-D Monitor - July 2025)9 July 2025China Solar Sector: Inflection point or another value trap? - 3 July 2025China Longyuan Power (0916.HK): Floating offshore-fishery wind project visit &management meeting takeaways-1July 2025China Gas Holdings (O384.HK): Core earnings slightly missed but dividend yield ishighest among peers - 27 June 2025Page 2 10July2025Alternative EnergyChina Renewables & Utilities SectorChina Utilities Sector: Power and Gas Monthly (May 2025 data)- 25 June 2025GCL Technology (3800.HK): NDR takeaways - Is market expectation too low onsupply-side reform? - 24 June 2025China Renewables Sector: Record high solar installations in May, but it's time toswitch to operators - 24 June 2025China Solar Sector: Takeaways from SNEC: Still crowded, but with a bit morebitterness-13June2025Drinda (2865.HK): A top-tier TOPcon cell producer; Initiating with a Buy - 12 June2025China Solar Sector: Monthly S-D Monitor: Mounting pressures before SNEC (June2025)- 9 June 2025China Utilities Sector: Power Industry Monthly Trackers (April 2025 data)- 23 May2025China City-gas Utilities: Takeaways from World Gas Conference in Beijing - 22 May2025China Solar Sector: DB Solar Conference - Takeaways from Chinese Companies -20May2025China Solar Sector: Monthly S-D Monitor: Back to square one (May 2025)- 15 May2025Previous issues of Weekly Digest: #1 (23 Feb 2024), #2 (1 Mar), #3 (8 Mar), #4 (15Mar),#5 (22 Mar), #6(1 Apr), #7 (12 Apr), #8 (19 Apr), #9 (25 Apr), #10 (13 May),#11(17 May), #12 (24 May), #13 (31 May), #14 (7 Jun), #15 (21 Jun), #16 (28 Jun), #17(8Jul),#18(15Jul),#19(19Jul),#20(26Jul),#21(2Aug),#22(9Aug),#23(18Aug)#24 (25 Aug), #25(4 Sep),#26 (16 Sep),#27(27 Sep),#28(18 0ct),#29 (25 0ct),#30(1 Nov), #31 (15 Nov), #32 (21 Nov), #33 (29 Nov), #34 (06 Dec), #35 (02 Jan),#36(10 Jan), #37 (06 Feb), #38 (14 Feb), #39 (21 Feb), #40 (27 Feb), #41 (7 Mar), #42(14 Mar), #43 (21 Mar), #44 (28 Mar), #45 (8 Apr), #46 (11 Apr), #47 (9 May), #48 (16May), #49 (30 May), #50 (5 June), #51 (19 June), #52 (04 Jul)Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong 10July2025Alternative EnergyChina Renewables&Utilities SectorWeekly chartsFigure 3: Weekly sub-sector share performance16%14%14%12%12%10%10%8%7%8%6%4%2%2%0%2%Source : Bloomberg Finance LPFigure 5: Solar components weekly margin trackerPolysilicon Wafer Cell Module(Rmb/Watt)Figure 7: China solar - monthly installations100.092.92024202580.060.0Jan-FebMarSource : Nationa/ Energy AdministrationPage 4 Source : Nationa/ Energy Administratior 10July2025Alternative EnergyChina Renewables&Utilities SectorFigure 9: Polysilicon - monthly production volumelutilization rate tracker708160.0000.3333333333334444444444445555555Source : SMMFigure 11: Cell - monthly production volume/utilizationrate tracker70.060.050.020.010.00.0332323222333444444242444555555Source : SMMFigure 13: Polysilicon - weekly inventory3503002500 2000 15010050Jul-23Jan-24Source : SMMFigure 15: Cell - weekly inventory2520Mar-24Jun-24Sep-24Source : SMMDeutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Source : SMMFigure 16: China monthly module inventory605040302010Source : SMM 10July2025Alternative EnergyChina Renewables & Utilities SectorFigure 17: China monthly power generation (YoY)50.0%ThermalNuclear40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%24Source : WindFigure 19: China monthly natural gas demand (YoY)20.0%15.0%14.8%12.8%10.0%205.0%%005.0%Source : NDRCFigure 21: Valuation comparisonCompanyBBG tickerMarket CapRating(USD MN)Solar manufacturersGCL Tech3800 HK4.608BuyXinyi Solar968 HK3.400BuyDrinda2865 HK.1.621BuyLONGi601012 CH17,378BuyTongwei600438 CH13.052SellGas distributorsChina Gas Holdings5,372Buy384 HKENN Energy2688 HK9.144BuyChina Resources Gas1193 HK5,925HoldHK UtilitiesHK & China Gas3 HK15.950BuyCK Infrastructure1038 HK16,369HK Electric2638 HK6.731Clean energy operators916 HK14.766BuyCR Power836 HK12,662BuyChina Yangtze Power600900 CH101,927BuySource:Deutsche Bankestimate