解读中国煤电转型：事实、挑战和机遇

Report / July 2025 Authors and AcknowledgmentsAuthorsZihao ChenTing LiYujing LiuZiyi LiuJialin TianLiyue ZhangAuthors listed alphabetically. All authors from RMI unless otherwise noted.ContactsYujing Liu,yujingliu@rmi.orgLiyue Zhang,liyue.zhang@rmi.orgCopyrights and CitationYujing Liu, Liyue Zhang et al.,Decoding the Coal Power Transition in China: Facts, Challenges,and Opportunities in Accelerating Power System Decarbonization, RMI, 2025,https://rmi.org/insight/decoding-the-coal-power-transition-in-china-facts-challenges-and-opportunities/.RMI values collaboration and aims to accelerate the energy transition through sharing knowledge andinsights. We therefore allow interested parties to reference, share, and cite our work through the CreativeCommons CC BY-SA 4.0 license.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/.All images used are from iStock.com unless otherwise noted.AcknowledgmentThe authors wish to thank the following experts for offering their insights and perspectives on this work:Xiang Wang, State Grid Energy Research InstituteQingyu Xu, Tsinghua University Energy Internet Research InstituteSpecial thanks to the Climate Imperative Foundation for its support of this report.The analysis presented in this publication is not the opinion of the experts at the above-listedorganizations. About RMIRocky Mountain Institute (RMI) is an independent, nonpartisan nonprofit founded in 1982 that transformsglobal energy systems through market-driven solutions to secure a prosperous, resilient, clean energyfuture for all. In collaboration with businesses, policymakers, funders, communities, and other partners,RMI drives investment to scale clean energy solutions, reduce energy waste, and boost access toaffordable clean energy in ways that enhance security, strengthen the economy, and improve people’slivelihoods. RMI is active in over 60 countries. Table of ContentsIntroduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6Background — China reiterates its commitment to decarbonizethe world’s largest power system with phased-in timelines. . . . . . . .8Process and objectives to establish a New Power System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8Surging power demand and inadequate system flexibility are the biggest near-term challenges.10Electricity-demand growth is on a fast track, with weather increasing the challenge ofgrid balancing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10Strong demand growth brings expansion in all power-generation technologies. . . . . . . . . . . . .12Higher penetration of weather-dependent renewables requires more flexible resources. . . . . . .14Review and outlook — coal power development and transition. . . . . .16Past: coal power development in China has experienced different stages and improved pricingmechanisms and technologies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16Power supply–demand balance is the dominating factor in different stages ofcoal power development. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16More pricing mechanisms are introduced for newly built coal power projects to recover revenue. .18Coal power plant technology improvement enables higher efficiency and better flexibility......19Present: the coal power pipeline has increased sharply, driven by multiple factors. . . . . . . . .20Where and why: the surge in the coal power pipeline is driven by multiple factorsin different regions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20Who and how: state-owned enterprises continue to dominate coal powerinvestment with strong vertical integration....................................23Future: upgrading on decarbonization, reliability, flexibility and intelligenceare key focus areas for coal power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26Discussion — three challenges to phase down coal power from its majorroles as the electricity generator and flexibility provider..........30Increasing uncertainties in the electricity-demand forecast are spurring the push fora larger and safer power system.........................................30Decoupling of economic growth from electricity consumption has not yet been seen in China....30New consumption drivers imply a longer electricity growth trajectory in China. . . . . . . . . . . . .32The traditional electricity-demand forecast requires thorough improvements tosupport a bigger and cleaner power system. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34 rmi.org/ rmi.org/Rising flexibility demand lacks diversified clean resources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36China needs fast-growing power-system flexibility for all timescales. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36Zero-carbon flexibility resources are growing fas