追踪美国建筑指标

S Saree Boroditsky, CFA*IEquity Analyst(212) 284-2280 I sboroditsky@jefferies.comStephen Volkmann, CFA * IEquity Analyst(212) 284-2031 I svolkmann@jefferies.comJames Ko*IEquity Associate+1 (312) 588-5155 1jko@jefferies.com Jefferiesdipped 39bps/M/M as declines in office, commercial, transportation, power and manufacturingmore than offset growth in communication and healthcare.Data center construction spendingincreased 91bps M/Mand25%Y/YExhibit 2 - June Dodge Momentum Index increased6.8% M/M240820014000Source: DodgtHousing Sentiment Remains Negative. Builder confidence continued to decline in June (down2pts M/M) and reached the third-lowest reading since 2012, with buyers increasingly moving tothe sidelines due to elevated mortgage rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty. May SF housingpermits declined 2.7% M/M while starts increased 43bps M/M. MF permits and starts decreased80bps and 29.7% M/M, respectively. Resi. private spending declined 53bps M/M, given declines inSF; MF was flat M/MExhibit 4 - June Housing Market Index declined 2ptsM/MExhibit 6 - May SF housing permitSM, while starts increased 43bps M/MRemodeling Sentiment Declines. The 1Q25 NAHB RMI declined 5pts Q/Q to 63, the second timesince 1Q20 that the RMi has hit that level. Remodelers reported that suppliers increased prices by~7% since Jan. 20th due to anticipatory tarffs. The LiRA forecasts resi remodeling spending growthof 1.8% in 2025. LiRA noted that high home values and other strong economic indicators havesupported an uptick in home improvement spending, though the uncertainty surrounding tariffs andfalling consumer confidence could dampen this growth.Please see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unaut Exhibit 3 - May US Architecture Billings Indexincreased 4pts M/M50%加(10%)[20%)Exhibit 5 - May total private residential constructionspending declined 53bps M/M1,10000650022233322235nge M/Vnd2.7%M/Exhibit 7 - May multi-family housing permitsand starts declined 80bps M/M and 29.7% M/M,respectively1208rized distribution is prohibitec JefferiesExhibit 8 - Remodeling spending is expected toincrease 2.5% Y/Y in1Q26 following a 1.1% increasein 2025530500Please see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. JefferiesTotalExhibit 10 -The CIRT Sentiment Index decreased 13.9pts Q/Q in 2Q25908010xapul60CIRT302010Source: FMI, CIRTCommercialExhibit 12 - June Dodge Momentum Index increased 6.8% M/M24022020016012010002222223333444455DodgeMomentumIndexSource: DodgeExhibit 14 - May US Architecture Billings Index increased 4pts M/M5240Aug-232DecSource: AlAPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited JefferiesExhibit 16 -May construction backlog indicator decreased o.3pts M/M9.58.58 7.0Source: ABCExhibit 18 - May total private residential construction spending declined 53bps M/M1,100900800700600Value50040030020APrivate Residential Construction SpendingSource: Census BureaResidentialExhibit 20 - June Housing Market Index declined 2pts M/M900 3010222Housing Market IndexSource: NAHBPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited Source: ABCExhibit 19 - May non-resi and nonbuilding starts increased 18.0% and 20.5% M/M,respectively5504003002502 200Source: Dodge AnalyticsExhibit 21 - June present single family sales and the future sales outlook indexesdeclined 2pts M/M, each100Expansion)90807060Index (50+5040302010Source: NAHB JefferiesExhibit 22 -May total private residential construction spending declined 53bps M/M1,100900800Value (SAAR,70060050040030000222223334445Private Residential Construction SpendingExhibit 24 -May single-family starts increased 43bps M/M1,3001,2001,1001,000spuesnoul006800700600500Single-Family StartsExhibit 26 - May multi-family starts decreased 29.7% M/M700650600300250200Multi-Family StartsForecasthis report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unau JefferiesExhibit 27 -AlAConsensus Construction Forecast Tableforecast (V/Y growtConsensus2%DodgeMoodyFMI2%2%3%3%Wells Fargo4%Capital3%3%Dodge4%5&PMoodyFMIWells FargoMarkstein5%Exhibit 28 - ConstructConnect expects total residential and non-residential starts to decrease .8% and 2.2% Y/Y in 2025, respectivelyTOTAL RESIDENTIALY/Y ChangeTOTAL COMMERCIALY/yChangeTOTAL INDUSTRIAL (manufacturing)Y/Y ChangeTOTALINSTITUTIONALY/Y ChangeTOTAL ENGINEERINGY/Y ChangeTOTALNONRESIDENTIALY/Y ChangeTotalY/Y ChangeExhibit 29 -The NAHB expects total housing starts to decrease 1.4%Y/Y in 2025and to increase 2.3% Y/Y in 20261,6501,6001,5501,5001,350Summary of key research for our Managed Care and Facilities coverage. Below,1,2501,200Total Housing StartsSource: NAHBPleas