航运日报：LPG现货费率继续优于其他行业

DayAgoChangeWeekAgoYear AgoYTD2025$24,9002.8%$23,800$21,800$37,300$32,0002.5%$30,900$30,300$44,600$34,4001.7%$33,600$32,400$45,700$33,6000.0%$36,000$38,900$38,300$36,8000.3%$39,100$42,600$41,500$37,9000.0%$40,300$43,100$42,000$32,200-1.2%$33,000$39,300$34,600$35,000-1.1%$35,800$42,600$37,400$35,700-1.1%$36,600$43,200$37,900Day AgoChangeWeek AgoYearAgoYTD 2025$24,200-1.2%$26,300$46,500$29.400$27,800-1.1%$29,900$50,900$33,000$29,500-1.4%$31,700$52,500$33,900$21,800-7.3%$26,200$29,200$21,200$25,500-6.3%$29,900$33,500$24,900$26,100-6.1%$30,500$34,200$25,500Day AgoChangeWeek AgoYear AgoYTD 2025$13,7000.7%$26,400$15,700$17,4001.7%$31,600$19,700$18,7002.1%$32,800$20,400312080C$11,200$12,300$8,500%0°0$13,600$14,700$10,900A$15,800-0.6%$14,900$15,900$11,600信$11,8000.0%$10,600$15,000$8,700$14,5000.0%$13,300$17,000$11,400$15,6000.0%$14,400$17,900$12,000DayAgoChangeWeek AgoYear AgoYTD 2025$5,0000.0%$6,000$34,000$4,000$25,000-4.0%$27,000$57,000$14,000$38,000-2.6%$40,000$69,000$25,000$63,9000.2%$61,900$35,600$42,300$66,8000.1%$64,800$39,200$45,300$69,200-0.1%$67,400$41,800$46,900DayAgoChangeWeek AgoYear AgoYTD2025$2,600%0°0$2,800$7,900$3,600$4,6000.0%$5,000$9,500$4,900$3,6000.0%$3,500$8,600$3,100$4,300-2.3%$4,400$8,600$4,300 VLGC spotrates remain elevated atabove $60,000/dayand outperformingpriorexpectations.Global averages arehovering at their highest levels sinceMay 2024,when thePanama Canaldisruptions had just begun to abate leadingto an influx of shorter-haul capacity inthe following months. That re-adjustmentimpacted VLGCs, which had seen thebiggest positive impact of all shippingsectors in 2023, due to the high percentageof LPG cargoes that transit the canal.However, after a period of lower spotrates during the second half of 2024and first few months of 2025, the VLGCfleet appears to have absorbed the addedcapacity brought on by the shorter-hauls.Continued strong cargo flows are a keydriver of the improved fundamentals withUS exports up 5% year-to-date and MiddleEast exports tracking at up 4%. The Usrepresents nearly50%of global volumeswhile the Middle East equates to 27-28%.We note that expectations for the VLGCmarket have increased materially since thestart of the year; in January the FFA curvepointed to an implied 2H25 average ofs35,000/day, but that has now risen to$51,000/day. By comparison, in the crudetanker sector where the outlook for VLCCshas improved materially, the 2H25 FFAshad begun the year at an implied s42,000/day but have improved more moderately to$45,000/day.Omar Nokta *IEquity Analyst1 (212) 778-8405|onokta@jefferies.comJaeyoung McGarry * IEquity Associate(212) 778-8358 ljmcgarry@jefferies.comEmily Harkins * IEquity Associate+1 (212) 778-8584 leharkins@jefferies.com JefferiesCrude Tanker RatesExhibit 1 - VLCC Crude Tanker Spot Rates per day (eco)$120,000$100,000$80,000$20,000Jan-24Apr-24Source: Baltic Exchange, Jefferies LLCExhibit 2 - Suezmax Crude Tanker Spot Rates per day (eco)$80,000$70,000$60,000$50,000$40,000$30,000$20,000$10,000soJan-24Apr-24Exhibit 3 - Aframax Crude Tanker Spot Rates per day (eco)$120,000$100,000$80,000$60,000$40,000$20,000Jan-24Apr-24Source: Baltic Exchange, Jefferies LLCPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unau Jul-24Jul-24 JefferiesProduct Tanker RatesExhibit 4 - LR2 Product Tanker Spot Rates per day (eco)$120,000$100,000$80,000$60,000$40,000$20,000$oJan-24Apr-24Source: Baltic Exchange, Jefferies LLCExhibit 5 - MR Product Tanker Spot Rates per day (eco)$60,000$50,000$40,000$30,000$20,000$10,000soJan-24Apr-24Source: Baltic Exchange, Jefferies LLCPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited Jul-24Oct-24Jul-24Oct-24 JefferiesDry Bulk RatesChart 6 - Capesize Spot Rates per day (eco)$60,000$50,000$40,000$30,000$20,000$10,000SoJan-24Apr-24Source: Baltic Exchange, Jefferies LLCChart 8 - Kamsarmax Spot Rates per day$25,000$20,000$15,00$10,000$5,000soJan-24Apr-24Source: Baltic Exchange, Jefferies LLCChart 10 - Ultramax Spot Rates per day$25,000$20,000$15,000$10,000$5,000soJan-24Apr-24Source: Baltic Exchange, Jefferies LLCPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unaut JefferiesLNG & LPG RatesChart 12 - LNG Spot Rates per day (MEGI)$140,000$120,000$100,000$80,000$60,000$40,000$20,000$oJan-24Apr-24Source: S&P Global Platts, Jefferies LLCExhibit 6 - VLGC Spot Rates per day (eco)$140,000$120,000$100,000$80,000$60,000$40,000$20,000$oJan-24Apr-24Source: Baltic Exchange, Jefferies LLCPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited Jul-24Jul-24 JefferiesContainer Freight RatesChart 15 - Asia - USWC Freight Rate (S/FEU)$9,000$8,000$7,000$6,000$5,000$4,000$3,000$1,000Jan