实时零售综述：电子产品与DFS

c-23.7%-18.1%21.M164%10.3%8.3%15.3%10.1%6.5%7.4.2920791.992.3%ding the status of non-US analysts on pages 7 - 12 of this report Andrew Wade * IEquity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8012| awade@jefferies.comGrace Gilberg * IEquity Analyst+44 (0)20702983561ggilberg@jefferies.com JefferiesChart 1 - Electricals indicators showing strong momentumYoY chg in Jefferies Retail Trends Barometer25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%Apr-24Jun-24ONS Electrical volumesChart 2 - DFS Barometer has accelerated since AprilYoY chg in Jefferies Retail Trends Barometer15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24. J@-25Source: Jefferies ResearchPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This repor JefferiesThe hot summer hasn't all been good news.The big news since our last Real-time Retail Round-up has been the warning last week fromGreggs (Buy, PT 2650p). It reported an impromptu H1'25 trading update, noting that theunusually warm weather had contributed to lower footfall and H1 LFLs slowing to +2.6%(+2.9% to 20th May). implying c.+1% through June. As a result, we lowered our FY25 PBTestimate from f191m to f175m, a -9% cut, consistent with guidance. Despite the near-termsetback, we continue to maintain a positive view on the fundamentals and see value in theshares, now trading at c.12x FY27e PE-levels not seen in over a decade.With two months of Q2'26 now complete, Kingfisher (Hold, PT 274p) is expected to see aLFLs. We now forecast UK Q2 LFLs to be flat (previously c.+2%), prompting a modest 10m cutto divisional profit and a -2% downgrade to FY26 Group adj PBT (509m, within guidance). Wemargin targets appear optimistic, and in Poland, where upbeat data may overstate underlyingdemand. While the balance sheet and capital allocation remain supportive, we retain our Holdrating, noting a muted UK growth outlook and structural headwinds in France.Trading momentum continues in Electricals:AO World (Buy, PT 150p) delivered solid FY25 results in June, achieving record profitability.product range, and customer service. Despite absorbing operational cost pressures andchallenges in its Mobile segment, AO maintained solid momentum and is expected to continueits premium growth trajectory in FY26. We left our forecasts unchanged and look for +10%B2C revenue growth and +8% core profit growth.Currys also released its FY25 results with Group PBT of 162m, +37% YoY and in line withupgraded market expectations, and supported by a UK LFL of +4% (H1: +5%, H2: +3%). Grouptrading in the early part of the new financial year has been 'in line with expectations', and theBoard is comfortable with FY market consensus (cons PBT: 167m, +3% YoY)Fundamentals at THG and Moonpig remain strong:In late June, THG (Buy, PT 65p) reported a return to cc revenue growth in Q2'25, driven byaccelerating momentum in both Nutrition and Beauty. Nutrition saw its strongest growthsince Q1'22 (+5-7%), supported by offline expansion, ASP growth, and a strong Juneexit rate. Beauty also improved, with Q2 revenue down just 2-3%, largely reflecting anunderperformance in own-brand revenues (JEFe -200bp impact) - a calendar effect from keycustomer order timings that is expected to reverse in Q3. Indeed, we can expect a return togrowth in H2. Group FY25 guidance was reiterated, and we kept our estimates unchanged(revenue +4%, aEBITDA 101m). With whey prices softening and key headwinds fading, FY26is set to showcase THG's underlying potential, with robust growth, strong cash generationand limited exceptionals expected.Moonpig's (Buy, PT 315p) FY25 results showed mixed performance, with revenue at the lowerend of guidance (350m) but stronger-than-expected profitability, delivering a 5% PBT beat.While H2 revenue growth slowed to +1.6% (vs. H1 +3.9%), driven by softness in Greetz and adeceleration in the core Moonpig brand (H1: +10%, H2: +7.5%), FY26 has started notably well,with a return to double-digit growth in the Moonpig brand. With FY26 aEBITDA guided to growat c.5%, we left our estimate at 102m (PBT +2% to 71m) unchanged. We remain at Buyencouraged by Moonpig's strong current trading, the long-awaited progress in gift attach, andanother year of double-digit EPS growth to come.Elsewhere, Topps Tiles last week reported its Q3'25 trading update with LFL of +7.3% (H1Please see important disclosure information on pages 7-12 of this report ution is prohibited. Jefferiessigns of improvement.Management Moves:Asos (Hold, PT 375p) announced the appointment of Aaron Izzard as CFO, replacing DaveMurray, who will be stepping down to 'pursue other interests'. Izzard has held several seniorfinance roles at ASOS since joining in 2017, including Director of Group Finance most recently.and was previously at Argos/Home Retail.Dunelm (Hold, PT 1095p) announced that Clodagh Moriarty, the Chief Retail and TechnologyOfficer at Sainsbury's, willjoin as the business's new CEO. Clo will succeed current CEO NickWilkinson who will continue in his role until Clo's appointment and will s